Last week, I discussed how the simple rating system could be an easy-to-understand and effective predictive ranking system. This week, I’ll be updating the ratings after the week 10 results, and providing an update on each conference. As always, special thanks to Dr. Wolfe who publishes the game scores for every NCAA and NAIA game each week.
The SRS assigns equal weight to each game, so by week 10, the weekly fluctuations are not significant. Still, here are the current SRS standings as of today:
Rk Team Conf G MOV SOS SRS W-L 1. LSU SEC 9 22.6 46.1 68.7 9-0 2. Alabama SEC 9 23.6 43.6 67.2 8-1 3. Oklahoma B12 9 20.6 45.8 66.4 8-1 4. Oklahoma St B12 9 20.3 45.8 66.1 9-0 5. Stanford P12 9 27.2 37.7 64.9 9-0 6. Oregon P12 9 20.6 41.5 62.1 8-1 7. Boise St MWC 8 23.3 37.5 60.8 8-0 8. Wisconsin B10 9 22.8 37.6 60.3 7-2 9. Texas A&M B12 9 7.3 48.2 55.5 5-4 10. Michigan B10 9 14.7 40.5 55.2 7-2 11. Texas B12 8 10.9 44.2 55.1 6-2 12. Arizona St P12 9 11.7 42.4 54.0 6-3 13. Houston CUS 9 24.3 29.1 53.4 9-0 14. Notre Dame IND 9 9.2 43.8 53.1 6-3 15. Missouri B12 9 5.1 47.5 52.6 4-5 16. Georgia SEC 9 11.9 40.7 52.6 7-2 17. Southern Cal P12 9 7.8 44.2 51.9 7-2 18. Nebraska B10 9 10.2 41.3 51.5 7-2 19. South Carolina SEC 9 8.7 42.8 51.4 7-2 20. Clemson ACC 9 12.1 39.3 51.4 8-1 21. Arkansas SEC 9 12.3 38.5 50.9 8-1 22. Florida St ACC 9 15.7 34.8 50.5 6-3 23. Kansas St B12 9 4.9 45.4 50.4 7-2 24. TCU MWC 9 15.9 34.3 50.3 7-2 25. Michigan St B10 9 8.9 41.2 50.1 7-2 26. Baylor B12 8 3.1 46.4 49.4 5-3 27. Penn State B10 9 8.4 40.9 49.3 8-1 28. Cincinnati BgE 8 16.1 33.1 49.2 7-1 29. Southern Miss CUS 9 16.6 32.6 49.1 8-1 30. Virginia Tech ACC 9 11.9 36.8 48.7 8-1 31. Ohio State B10 9 6.4 41.8 48.2 6-3 32. Miami FL ACC 9 7.6 40.2 47.8 5-4 33. Georgia Tech ACC 9 12.7 35.0 47.7 7-2 34. Florida SEC 9 4.2 43.4 47.7 5-4 35. Toledo MAC 9 7.9 39.1 47.0 5-4 36. Tennessee SEC 9 0.2 46.5 46.7 4-5 37. Mississippi St SEC 9 7.5 38.4 45.9 5-4 38. Iowa B10 9 8.9 36.9 45.9 6-3 39. West Virginia BgE 9 8.1 37.8 45.8 6-3 40. Illinois B10 9 6.2 39.6 45.8 6-3 41. Utah P12 9 2.7 42.7 45.4 5-4 42. Auburn SEC 9 -0.3 45.0 44.7 6-3 43. Washington P12 9 0.4 44.2 44.6 6-3 44. Tulsa CUS 9 4.7 39.8 44.5 6-3 45. Temple MAC 9 12.5 31.8 44.3 5-4 46. South Florida BgE 8 7.0 37.2 44.2 4-4 47. North Carolina ACC 10 3.8 39.8 43.5 6-4 48. Vanderbilt SEC 9 0.2 42.6 42.8 4-5 49. Rutgers BgE 9 6.5 36.3 42.8 6-3 50. Texas Tech B12 9 1.4 40.6 42.1 5-4 51. California P12 9 2.9 39.1 42.0 5-4 52. Arizona P12 9 -6.3 47.9 41.6 2-7 53. Pittsburgh BgE 9 0.2 41.2 41.4 4-5 54. San Diego St MWC 8 5.9 35.1 41.0 5-3 55. Nevada WAC 8 4.9 36.0 40.9 5-3 56. Northern Illinois MAC 9 6.5 34.3 40.8 6-3 57. Louisiana Tech WAC 9 3.1 37.7 40.8 5-4 58. Arkansas St Sun 9 10.8 29.8 40.6 7-2 59. Virginia ACC 9 3.7 36.7 40.4 6-3 60. Northwestern B10 9 1.2 39.0 40.2 4-5 61. Brigham Young IND 9 3.2 36.9 40.1 6-3 62. SMU CUS 9 4.7 35.4 40.0 6-3 63. UCLA P12 9 -6.1 45.9 39.9 5-4 64. Air Force MWC 9 2.8 36.4 39.2 5-4 65. Louisville BgE 9 1.0 38.0 39.0 5-4 66. Iowa St B12 9 -6.1 44.9 38.9 5-4 67. Ohio U. MAC 9 10.4 28.4 38.8 6-3 68. Utah St WAC 8 4.7 34.1 38.8 3-5 69. North Carolina St ACC 9 0.3 37.4 37.7 5-4 70. Purdue B10 9 -1.7 39.3 37.6 4-5 71. Wake Forest ACC 9 0.1 37.4 37.5 5-4 72. Western Michigan MAC 9 4.1 33.4 37.5 5-4 73. Navy IND 9 -0.2 37.7 37.5 3-6 74. Syracuse BgE 9 -0.2 37.0 36.8 5-4 75. Hawai`i WAC 9 5.6 30.9 36.5 5-4 76. Washington St P12 9 -2.6 38.1 35.6 3-6 77. Connecticut BgE 9 0.5 35.1 35.6 4-5 78. Oregon St P12 9 -9.2 44.7 35.5 2-7 79. Central Florida CUS 9 6.8 27.9 34.8 4-5 80. Marshall CUS 9 -5.7 39.7 34.0 4-5 81. Miami OH MAC 9 -1.1 34.8 33.7 4-5 82. Wyoming MWC 8 -0.8 34.1 33.4 5-3 83. Kentucky SEC 9 -6.8 40.1 33.3 4-5 84. Maryland ACC 9 -9.7 42.7 33.1 2-7 85. Louisiana-Lafayette Sun 10 4.7 28.1 32.8 8-2 86. Florida Int'l Sun 9 2.4 30.3 32.7 5-4 87. Mississippi SEC 9 -9.9 42.6 32.7 2-7 88. UTEP CUS 9 -1.3 33.9 32.6 4-5 89. Bowling Green MAC 9 -1.1 33.5 32.4 4-5 90. Fresno St WAC 9 -7.1 39.1 32.0 3-6 91. Ball St MAC 10 -5.4 37.1 31.8 6-4 92. San José St WAC 9 -6.5 37.8 31.3 3-6 93. East Carolina CUS 9 -6.0 36.8 30.8 4-5 94. Army IND 9 -1.1 31.8 30.7 3-6 95. Minnesota B10 9 -13.0 43.7 30.7 2-7 96. Rice CUS 9 -10.8 41.1 30.3 3-6 97. Duke ACC 9 -7.9 38.2 30.3 3-6 98. Boston College ACC 9 -8.3 38.4 30.1 2-7 99. Kansas B12 9 -17.2 47.2 30.0 2-7 100. Colorado P12 10 -17.5 46.3 28.8 1-9 101. Western Kentucky Sun 9 -2.1 30.9 28.8 5-4 102. Indiana B10 10 -12.3 40.8 28.6 1-9 103. Louisiana-Monroe Sun 9 -5.2 33.8 28.5 2-7 104. Eastern Michigan MAC 9 -3.1 31.5 28.4 5-4 105. Idaho WAC 9 -7.6 34.8 27.2 2-7 106. Kent St MAC 9 -10.7 37.8 27.1 3-6 107. Buffalo MAC 9 -10.4 37.3 26.9 2-7 108. North Texas Sun 9 -11.7 38.4 26.8 3-6 109. New Mexico St WAC 9 -7.1 33.7 26.5 3-6 110. Central Michigan MAC 10 -6.8 32.3 25.5 3-7 111. Middle Tennessee St Sun 8 -6.1 31.0 24.9 2-6 112. Colorado St MWC 8 -5.4 28.6 23.2 3-5 113. Troy Sun 8 -11.4 34.5 23.1 2-6 114. UNLV MWC 8 -19.1 39.9 20.8 2-6 115. Florida Atlantic Sun 8 -19.4 37.0 17.6 0-8 116. Alabama-Birmingham CUS 9 -19.2 36.7 17.4 1-8 117. Akron MAC 9 -16.7 33.3 16.6 1-8 118. Tulane CUS 10 -12.6 28.4 15.8 2-8 119. Memphis CUS 9 -16.0 29.9 13.9 2-7 120. New Mexico MWC 9 -26.6 38.9 12.3 0-9
Let’s take a look at the SRS and conference records for each of the 11 conferences:
ACC
Rk Team Conf G MOV SOS SRS W-L 20. Clemson ACC 9 12.1 39.3 51.4 8-1 22. Florida St ACC 9 15.7 34.8 50.5 6-3 30. Virginia Tech ACC 9 11.9 36.8 48.7 8-1 32. Miami FL ACC 9 7.6 40.2 47.8 5-4 33. Georgia Tech ACC 9 12.7 35.0 47.7 7-2 47. North Carolina ACC 10 3.8 39.8 43.5 6-4 59. Virginia ACC 9 3.7 36.7 40.4 6-3 69. North Carolina St ACC 9 0.3 37.4 37.7 5-4 71. Wake Forest ACC 9 0.1 37.4 37.5 5-4 84. Maryland ACC 9 -9.7 42.7 33.1 2-7 97. Duke ACC 9 -7.9 38.2 30.3 3-6 98. Boston College ACC 9 -8.3 38.4 30.1 2-7
The ACC is rarely strong at the top, but the conference is usually deep. This year neither adjective is appropriate, and the out-of-conference results have been ugly. The ACC has only two notable out-of-conference wins: Miami over Ohio State and Clemson over Auburn. Meanwhile, Oklahoma (FSU), Stanford (Duke), Notre Dame (Wake Forest), Kansas State (Miami), Cincinnati (N.C. State), Southern Miss (Virginia), West Virginia (Maryland ), Temple (Maryland), Northwestern (Boston College), Syracuse (Wake Forest), Central Florida (Boston College) and…. Richmond (Duke) have taken out various members of the ACC.
Still, the top members of the conference are respectable if not dominant. Clemson is 5-1 and atop the Atlantic Division, while Virginia Tech is the only team with one loss in the Coastal. FSU and Wake Forest are hot on Clemson’s heels, but Clemson’s 35-30 win over the Seminoles likely knocks them out of contention. Wake Forest also beat Florida State 35-30, and controls its own destiny in the Atlantic. The Tigers and Demon Deacons face off this weekend, in a de facto Atlantic Division championship game (a Clemson win clinches the division; a Wake win and a victory over Maryland sends them all the way to…. Charlotte for the ACC Championship Game.) As expected, the SRS strongly favors Clemson this weekend.
Similarly, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech face off in a key game to decide the fate of the Coastal Division. Virginia, with a win over Georgia Tech already, controls its own destiny as well: they host the Hokies on November 26th.
Florida State has come on in recent weeks, making FSU, Clemson and Virginia Tech the cream of an inconsistent conference. Odds are, the latter two face off in Charlotte, with the winner almost certainly earning the right to face off against the Big East champ in the Orange Bowl.
Big 10
Rk Team Conf G MOV SOS SRS W-L 8. Wisconsin B10 9 22.8 37.6 60.3 7-2 10. Michigan B10 9 14.7 40.5 55.2 7-2 18. Nebraska B10 9 10.2 41.3 51.5 7-2 25. Michigan St B10 9 8.9 41.2 50.1 7-2 27. Penn State B10 9 8.4 40.9 49.3 8-1 31. Ohio State B10 9 6.4 41.8 48.2 6-3 38. Iowa B10 9 8.9 36.9 45.9 6-3 40. Illinois B10 9 6.2 39.6 45.8 6-3 60. Northwestern B10 9 1.2 39.0 40.2 4-5 70. Purdue B10 9 -1.7 39.3 37.6 4-5 95. Minnesota B10 9 -13.0 43.7 30.7 2-7 102. Indiana B10 10 -12.3 40.8 28.6 1-9
On paper, there’s a big divide between the ‘halves’ and ‘halve-nots’ in the conference. But Northwestern upended Nebraska a week after Minnesota shocked Iowa. Dr. Saturday broke down the conference’s championship race last week; since then, Penn State had a bye week and a reprehensible scandal; Nebraska’s loss to Northwestern may give Michigan State the Legends division; Michigan’s loss will likely prove fatal, while Nebraska will need help and to navigate a difficult schedule to reach Indianapolis. Iowa’s win puts them in the thick of the race; the Hawkeyes host Michigan State in a monster matchup this weekend. An MSU win puts them in fantastic position, and they look like the favorites — they end the season against Indiana and Northwestern — to win the Legends Division.
On the field, Penn State has been ugly but effective, with the Nittany Lions’ only loss this season coming to Alabama. But a team that is 8-1 but 27th in the SRS is a team that is nowhere as good as its record. For PSU, two out of three at home against Nebraska, at Ohio State and in Wisconsin would give them the Leaders Division, but that is a tall task. As a Penn State alumnus, I’m far too disgusted to say anything positive about the football program this week. Wisconsin likely wins the Leaders Division, setting up an exciting rematch in Indianapolis against Michigan State. Last year, Michigan State had the best record in the conference but its fans were infuriated when Wisconsin — a team they beat in the regular season — went to the Rose Bowl. The same thing may happen again this year. According to the SRS and the naked eye, the Badgers are the best team in the conference and likely to end the year in Pasadena.
On another note: Indiana is in the pole position for “worst team in a BCS conference” and not just according to the SRS. Indiana is 1-9, with its lone win coming by only 17 against an FCS school (Colorado is the only other Big Six school with just one win, which came against Colorado State). The Hoosiers have lost to a Sun Belt school (North Texas), a MAC school (Ball State) and Virginia. With Minnesota off the schedule this season, Indiana’s only hope for an FBS win comes in the season finale at home against Purdue.
Big 12
Rk Team Conf G MOV SOS SRS W-L 3. Oklahoma B12 9 20.6 45.8 66.4 8-1 4. Oklahoma St B12 9 20.3 45.8 66.1 9-0 9. Texas A&M B12 9 7.3 48.2 55.5 5-4 11. Texas B12 8 10.9 44.2 55.1 6-2 15. Missouri B12 9 5.1 47.5 52.6 4-5 23. Kansas St B12 9 4.9 45.4 50.4 7-2 26. Baylor B12 8 3.1 46.4 49.4 5-3 50. Texas Tech B12 9 1.4 40.6 42.1 5-4 66. Iowa St B12 9 -6.1 44.9 38.9 5-4 99. Kansas B12 9 -17.2 47.2 30.0 2-7
The Big 12 teams have strong SOS ratings throughout, as 1) 7 of the 10 teams are very good; 2) each school is playing 9 conference games; and 3) they have played some respectable non-conference games. Texas A&M has played the hardest schedule in college football; combined with blowout victories (average MOV in wins = 22.0) and close losses (average MOV in losses = -7.0), and A&M ranks high in the SRS despite an unimpressive 5-4 record.
But the real story of the conference is the way Oklahoma and Oklahoma State have dominated every opponent, with few exceptions. Their Bedlam showdown should be fantastic. Why does the SRS have OU slightly ahead of OSU?
Oklahoma’s been a bit better defensively. Consider that in the five common Big 12 games – against Kansas, KSU, Mizzou, Texas and Texas A&M — Oklahoma State won all five by an average score of 47-30; OU won all five by an average score of 48-21. The Texas Tech loss kills OSU in the SRS — OU earned a 35.1 in that game, by far the lowest by either team this season — but Oklahoma also has two monster games (+86.1 in a 55-17 Texas drubbing and +84.4 when the Sooners blew out Kansas State) that Oklahoma State can’t touch. With the unfortunate news that Ryan Broyles is out for the season, a week after after losing running back Dominique Whaley to a broken ankle — I’d have to make the Cowboys a favorite, especially with the game in Stillwater. The implications are enormous: an OSU win almost certainly sends them to the Sugar Bowl for the BCS National Championship Game. An Oklahoma win will give them their fifth Big 12 title in six years, and a trip to the Fiesta Bowl…. perhaps against Boise State. Again.
Big East
Rk Team Conf G MOV SOS SRS W-L 28. Cincinnati BgE 8 16.1 33.1 49.2 7-1 39. West Virginia BgE 9 8.1 37.8 45.8 6-3 46. South Florida BgE 8 7.0 37.2 44.2 4-4 49. Rutgers BgE 9 6.5 36.3 42.8 6-3 53. Pittsburgh BgE 9 0.2 41.2 41.4 4-5 65. Louisville BgE 9 1.0 38.0 39.0 5-4 74. Syracuse BgE 9 -0.2 37.0 36.8 5-4 77. Connecticut BgE 9 0.5 35.1 35.6 4-5
Cincinnati’s worst game of the season — by far, in SRS speak — was in Knoxville, a 45-23 loss in week two. But Cincinnati beat N.C. State by 30 and shutout Miami (Ohio) 27-0, while going undefeated in conference play. USF has managed to go 0-4 in conference play, losing three of those games by a combined 9 points. Louisville is the only other Big East team without two losses, but the Cardinals aren’t good enough yet to make noise in this conference. West Virginia has stumbled too often this season, and a 26-point loss at Syracuse registers as an unfathomable 13.8 on the SRS. Cincinnati and Virginia Tech played an unwatchable game in one of the least intriguing Orange Bowls ever; we may see a repeat in two months. If Cincinnati can handle West Virginia this weekend, the conference will be all but wrapped up.
Conference USA
Rk Team Conf G MOV SOS SRS W-L 13. Houston CUS 9 24.3 29.1 53.4 9-0 29. Southern Miss CUS 9 16.6 32.6 49.1 8-1 44. Tulsa CUS 9 4.7 39.8 44.5 6-3 62. SMU CUS 9 4.7 35.4 40.0 6-3 79. Central Florida CUS 9 6.8 27.9 34.8 4-5 80. Marshall CUS 9 -5.7 39.7 34.0 4-5 88. UTEP CUS 9 -1.3 33.9 32.6 4-5 93. East Carolina CUS 9 -6.0 36.8 30.8 4-5 96. Rice CUS 9 -10.8 41.1 30.3 3-6 116. Alabama-Birmingham CUS 9 -19.2 36.7 17.4 1-8 118. Tulane CUS 10 -12.6 28.4 15.8 2-8 119. Memphis CUS 9 -16.0 29.9 13.9 2-7
Houston’s SOS has been pathetic, which is why no one is championing their cause despite the 9-0 record. But the Cougars are going to face some difficult competition soon. After a warmup against Tulane, Houston’s final two games come against SMU and Tulsa. If Case Keenum and company can with those games, the Conference USA Championship Game, likely against Southern Miss, will be another difficult hurdle.
But crown the Cougars just yet. Tulsa is also undefeated in the conference — their three losses came against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Boise State — and hosts Houston in the final week of the season. The Golden Hurricane could knock Houston from being a possible BCS “Buster” to not even qualifying for the C-USA Championship Game. Tulsa’s losses are entirely forgivable, which means Tulsa-Houston is one of the hidden gems left on the college football schedule. Last year, Tulsa won in Houston with Keenum on the sidelines, while in 2009, Houston scored 9 points in the final 21 seconds for a miraculous 46-45 victory.
Independents
Rk Team Conf G MOV SOS SRS W-L 14. Notre Dame IND 9 9.2 43.8 53.1 6-3 61. Brigham Young IND 9 3.2 36.9 40.1 6-3 73. Navy IND 9 -0.2 37.7 37.5 3-6 94. Army IND 9 -1.1 31.8 30.7 3-6
Notre Dame’s only a couple of plays away from 8-1, and seem to be making progress under Brian Kelly. The Irish still have a chance to make a difference this season, as they face Stanford in Palo Alto on November 26th. Navy won at least 8 games every season from 2003 to 2010, but the Midshipmen will need to beat SMU (and San Jose State and Army) to be bowl eligible this year.
Mid-Atlantic
Rk Team Conf G MOV SOS SRS W-L 35. Toledo MAC 9 7.9 39.1 47.0 5-4 45. Temple MAC 9 12.5 31.8 44.3 5-4 56. Northern Illinois MAC 9 6.5 34.3 40.8 6-3 67. Ohio U. MAC 9 10.4 28.4 38.8 6-3 72. Western Michigan MAC 9 4.1 33.4 37.5 5-4 81. Miami OH MAC 9 -1.1 34.8 33.7 4-5 89. Bowling Green MAC 9 -1.1 33.5 32.4 4-5 91. Ball St MAC 10 -5.4 37.1 31.8 6-4 104. Eastern Michigan MAC 9 -3.1 31.5 28.4 5-4 106. Kent St MAC 9 -10.7 37.8 27.1 3-6 107. Buffalo MAC 9 -10.4 37.3 26.9 2-7 110. Central Michigan MAC 10 -6.8 32.3 25.5 3-7 117. Akron MAC 9 -16.7 33.3 16.6 1-8
Nothern Illinois and Toledo are atop the MAC with 4-1 records, and NIU’s exciting 63-60 win last week over Toledo gives them the tiebreaker in the MAC-West. The Rockets have had a tough four loss season: Toledo lost games in Columbus and against Boise State; a wrong call led to a 33-30 loss to Syracuse, and that was before losing the shootout to the Huskies. Ohio and Miami have the best records in the MAC-East, and the two play on the final week of the MAC regular season. Temple lost by 4 to Penn State, in addition to close losses on the road against Ohio and Bowling Green. Outside of an ugly game against Toledo, the Owls have played pretty well this season (by MAC standards, of course).
Mountain West
Rk Team Conf G MOV SOS SRS W-L 7. Boise St MWC 8 23.3 37.5 60.8 8-0 24. TCU MWC 9 15.9 34.3 50.3 7-2 54. San Diego St MWC 8 5.9 35.1 41.0 5-3 64. Air Force MWC 9 2.8 36.4 39.2 5-4 82. Wyoming MWC 8 -0.8 34.1 33.4 5-3 112. Colorado St MWC 8 -5.4 28.6 23.2 3-5 114. UNLV MWC 8 -19.1 39.9 20.8 2-6 120. New Mexico MWC 9 -26.6 38.9 12.3 0-9
Boise State still must beat TCU and win at San Diego State, but it would be nothing short of shocking if the Broncos don’t finish 12-0. Boise State’s best win by SOS was against Georgia, of course; but the SRS was even more impressed by beating Toledo by 25 on the road (+73.0) and winning on the road by 50 against Fresno State (+70.5). BSU’s last two games were its weakest, as beating UNLV by only 27 (+47.8) and struggling with Air Force (37-26; +47.2) did not help Boise State get the style points it desperately needs.
Subjectively? I think Boise State could have beaten Auburn last season; the 2010 Broncos were a fantastic team. This year, I don’t think they would have a very good chance against LSU. But it’s almost certainly a moot point, as Boise State is unlikely to finish in the top two of the BCS. Boise State won’t end up in the Orange Bowl, so they’re likely playing one of Alabama, LSU or Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl or Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl (where OU could end up even if it loses to Oklahoma State). That will be must-see TV.
Pac-12
Rk Team Conf G MOV SOS SRS W-L 5. Stanford P12 9 27.2 37.7 64.9 9-0 6. Oregon P12 9 20.6 41.5 62.1 8-1 12. Arizona St P12 9 11.7 42.4 54.0 6-3 17. Southern Cal P12 9 7.8 44.2 51.9 7-2 41. Utah P12 9 2.7 42.7 45.4 5-4 43. Washington P12 9 0.4 44.2 44.6 6-3 51. California P12 9 2.9 39.1 42.0 5-4 52. Arizona P12 9 -6.3 47.9 41.6 2-7 63. UCLA P12 9 -6.1 45.9 39.9 5-4 76. Washington St P12 9 -2.6 38.1 35.6 3-6 78. Oregon St P12 9 -9.2 44.7 35.5 2-7 100. Colorado P12 10 -17.5 46.3 28.8 1-9
Stanford and Oregon are elite teams, and their matchup is the game of the week this weekend. Both teams are still alive for the BCS Championship, but need Oklahoma to beat Oklahoma State. The SRS likes Stanford, but that game should be every bit as exciting as LSU-Alabama was (or, as was supposed to be, depending on your view).
In the Pac-12 South, USC is ineligible to win the division, so Arizona State and UCLA are the only teams in contention for the role of ‘sacrificial lamb’ in the P12 Championship Game. UCLA is not very good — and that’s being nice — but pulled off an incredible upset against Arizona State, and now holds the tiebreaker. Games against Utah and Colorado are potential wins, which means the rivalry game against USC could be for the division crown. But I don’t think the Bruins are anywhere near good enough to run the table, which will give the Stanford/Oregon winner a much better opponent (key for the computer ratings) in the Championship Game in Arizona State. Of course, this means it’s still possible that the chips fall in place for a UCLA-Iowa Rose Bowl.
SEC
Rk Team Conf G MOV SOS SRS W-L 1. LSU SEC 9 22.6 46.1 68.7 9-0 2. Alabama SEC 9 23.6 43.6 67.2 8-1 16. Georgia SEC 9 11.9 40.7 52.6 7-2 19. South Carolina SEC 9 8.7 42.8 51.4 7-2 21. Arkansas SEC 9 12.3 38.5 50.9 8-1 34. Florida SEC 9 4.2 43.4 47.7 5-4 36. Tennessee SEC 9 0.2 46.5 46.7 4-5 37. Mississippi St SEC 9 7.5 38.4 45.9 5-4 42. Auburn SEC 9 -0.3 45.0 44.7 6-3 48. Vanderbilt SEC 9 0.2 42.6 42.8 4-5 83. Kentucky SEC 9 -6.8 40.1 33.3 4-5 87. Mississippi SEC 9 -9.9 42.6 32.7 2-7
No surprise here: the SRS still considers LSU and Bama as the top two teams in the country (although the Sooners and Cowboys are hot on their heels). Alabama scored a 61.7 on the SRS against LSU, which is actually better than they did when they let up against Kent State and North Texas. LSU scored a 74.2, which still trailed the 75.7 and 75.1 performances against Tennessee and Oregon, respectively. The rest of the SEC, however, is much less impressive. In theory, Arkansas could force a three-way tie in the SEC-West by beating LSU, and would be the favorite to advance to the SEC Championship Game based on the tiebreakers (based in part on the BCS ratings). But the idea of Arkansas winning at Tiger Stadium — the SRS would make LSU a 20-point favorite — is difficult to entertain right now.
Alabama is fantastic and would probably be a pick-em in a hypothetical rematch against the Tigers. But unless Stanford and Oklahoma State lose, ‘Bama has little chance of reaching the National Championship Game. A Sugar Bowl battle against Boise State, Oregon, or Oklahoma State, if it works out that way, would be a great substitute for fans.
Sun Belt
Rk Team Conf G MOV SOS SRS W-L 58. Arkansas St Sun 9 10.8 29.8 40.6 7-2 85. Louisiana-Lafayette Sun 10 4.7 28.1 32.8 8-2 86. Florida Int'l Sun 9 2.4 30.3 32.7 5-4 101. Western Kentucky Sun 9 -2.1 30.9 28.8 5-4 103. Louisiana-Monroe Sun 9 -5.2 33.8 28.5 2-7 108. North Texas Sun 9 -11.7 38.4 26.8 3-6 111. Middle Tennessee St Sun 8 -6.1 31.0 24.9 2-6 113. Troy Sun 8 -11.4 34.5 23.1 2-6 115. Florida Atlantic Sun 8 -19.4 37.0 17.6 0-8
Western Kentucky isn’t any good — we’re about to find out how not any good they are against LSU this weekend — but hats off to the Hilltoppers for winning five straight games, all in conference. Arkansas State (5-0) and Louisiana-Lafayette (6-1) battle it out this weekend, with the winner having the inside track to winning the Sun Belt. But WKU has only Troy and North Texas left, which means the Hilltoppers could actually end the season 7-1 in conference play. If they do that, and Arkansas State loses to the Ragin Cajuns this weekend, then all three teams could end the season tied for first in the conference.
Most likely? The Red Wolves handle their business at home against Louisiana-Lafayette. Arkansas State lost to two BCS schools on the road — Illinois and Virginia Tech — but emerged victorious against everyone else. The SRS pegs them as an 11-point favorite this weekend, nearly matching the opening line of 10.5.
WAC
Rk Team Conf G MOV SOS SRS W-L 55. Nevada WAC 8 4.9 36.0 40.9 5-3 57. Louisiana Tech WAC 9 3.1 37.7 40.8 5-4 68. Utah St WAC 8 4.7 34.1 38.8 3-5 75. Hawai`i WAC 9 5.6 30.9 36.5 5-4 90. Fresno St WAC 9 -7.1 39.1 32.0 3-6 92. San José St WAC 9 -6.5 37.8 31.3 3-6 105. Idaho WAC 9 -7.6 34.8 27.2 2-7 109. New Mexico St WAC 9 -7.1 33.7 26.5 3-6
The WAC wasn’t bad last year, with Boise State, Colin Kaepernick and the good version of Hawaii. This year, the conference has been barely worth following. Nevada lost by 49 to Oregon but only by 1 in Lubbock, which probably doesn’t help Oklahoma’s argument that the Sooners are better than the Ducks. Nevada also lost to Boise State in what is now a non-conference game, which makes the Wolf Pack undefeated in conference play. Louisiana Tech is the only other team without multiple WAC losses, which makes their trip to Reno on November 19th the premier WAC matchup of the season. Take from that what you will.