Believe it or not, the Oklahoma State Cowboys ended up finishing #2 in the SRS. Like last week, LSU remains the clear #1. But on the basis of the most impressive SRS game of the season, the Cowboys topped the Crimson Tide.
Rk. Team Conf G MOV SOS SRS W-L 1. LSU SEC 13 24.4 41.4 65.8 13-0 2. Oklahoma St B12 12 20.6 43.7 64.2 11-1 3. Alabama SEC 12 23.4 40.4 63.8 11-1 4. Oregon P12 13 18.7 41.1 59.8 11-2 5. Stanford P12 12 19.3 39.6 58.8 11-1 6. Oklahoma B12 12 14.0 44.7 58.7 9-3 7. Wisconsin B10 13 21.8 36.7 58.5 11-2 8. Boise St MWC 12 20.9 34.2 55.1 11-1 9. Michigan B10 12 15.3 39.7 55.0 10-2 10. Southern Cal P12 12 11.0 42.1 53.2 10-2 11. Texas A&M B12 12 8.0 44.4 52.4 6-6 12. Arkansas SEC 12 12.3 39.6 51.8 10-2 13. Houston CUS 13 22.4 28.7 51.1 12-1 14. Baylor B12 12 7.0 44.0 51.0 9-3 15. Michigan St B10 13 11.2 39.2 50.4 10-3 16. Georgia SEC 13 10.2 39.3 49.5 10-3 17. Notre Dame IND 12 8.0 41.5 49.5 8-4 18. TCU MWC 12 17.1 32.3 49.4 10-2 19. Missouri B12 12 6.3 43.0 49.3 7-5 20. South Carolina SEC 12 10.1 39.2 49.3 10-2 21. Texas B12 12 4.8 44.4 49.1 7-5 22. Kansas St B12 12 4.9 43.3 48.2 10-2 23. Nebraska B10 12 7.0 41.1 48.1 9-3 24. Florida St ACC 12 13.2 33.8 47.0 8-4 25. Arizona St P12 12 6.6 39.6 46.2 6-6 26. Virginia Tech ACC 13 9.8 35.6 45.4 11-2 27. Clemson ACC 13 7.4 37.3 44.6 10-3 28. Southern Miss CUS 13 15.5 29.0 44.5 11-2 29. Penn State B10 12 4.0 40.4 44.4 9-3 30. California P12 12 4.4 39.5 43.9 7-5 31. Toledo MAC 12 9.8 33.8 43.6 8-4 32. West Virginia BgE 12 7.2 36.1 43.3 9-3 33. Vanderbilt SEC 12 4.2 39.0 43.2 6-6 34. Ohio State B10 12 3.5 39.8 43.2 6-6 35. Cincinnati BgE 12 11.3 31.9 43.2 9-3 36. Iowa B10 12 5.4 37.5 42.9 7-5 37. Florida SEC 12 2.8 40.1 42.9 6-6 38. Mississippi St SEC 12 3.9 38.8 42.6 6-6 39. Tulsa CUS 12 6.0 36.5 42.5 8-4 40. Utah P12 12 3.9 38.6 42.5 7-5 41. Miami FL ACC 12 4.8 37.1 41.9 6-6 42. Brigham Young IND 12 9.0 31.9 40.9 9-3 43. Tennessee SEC 12 -1.9 42.7 40.8 5-7 44. North Carolina ACC 12 4.2 36.4 40.6 7-5 45. Louisiana Tech WAC 12 7.5 33.1 40.6 8-4 46. Georgia Tech ACC 12 7.8 32.8 40.6 8-4 47. Temple MAC 12 12.7 27.8 40.4 8-4 48. Iowa St B12 12 -6.0 46.0 40.0 6-6 49. Washington P12 12 -1.3 41.3 39.9 7-5 50. Pittsburgh BgE 12 1.8 38.1 39.9 6-6 51. South Florida BgE 12 4.3 35.6 39.9 5-7 52. Rutgers BgE 12 6.0 33.7 39.7 8-4 53. Illinois B10 12 0.4 39.1 39.5 6-6 54. Arkansas St Sun 12 13.1 26.0 39.1 10-2 55. Northern Illinois MAC 13 7.8 31.2 39.0 10-3 56. Nevada WAC 12 6.1 32.5 38.6 7-5 57. Auburn SEC 12 -3.7 42.2 38.6 7-5 58. Northwestern B10 12 2.1 35.9 37.9 6-6 59. Louisville BgE 12 2.4 35.5 37.9 7-5 60. San Diego St MWC 12 5.1 32.7 37.8 8-4 61. Arizona P12 12 -4.9 42.7 37.8 4-8 62. Texas Tech B12 12 -5.1 42.1 37.0 5-7 63. Air Force MWC 12 5.4 31.0 36.4 7-5 64. UCLA P12 13 -7.5 43.8 36.3 6-7 65. Western Michigan MAC 12 6.5 29.7 36.2 7-5 66. North Carolina St ACC 12 2.4 33.5 35.9 7-5 67. Utah St WAC 12 5.1 30.7 35.8 7-5 68. Virginia ACC 12 1.2 34.3 35.5 8-4 69. Navy IND 11 0.7 34.6 35.3 4-7 70. Ohio U. MAC 13 9.2 26.1 35.3 9-4 71. Purdue B10 12 -1.4 36.1 34.6 6-6 72. Wake Forest ACC 12 -1.0 35.5 34.6 6-6 73. Connecticut BgE 12 -0.4 34.8 34.5 5-7 74. Washington St P12 12 -3.1 37.4 34.4 4-8 75. SMU CUS 12 0.5 33.7 34.3 7-5 76. Oregon St P12 12 -9.0 43.1 34.1 3-9 77. Central Florida CUS 12 5.7 28.0 33.7 5-7 78. Wyoming MWC 12 0.9 31.5 32.4 8-4 79. Florida Int'l Sun 12 6.6 25.7 32.4 8-4 80. Boston College ACC 12 -4.8 36.9 32.2 4-8 81. Syracuse BgE 12 -4.6 36.5 31.9 5-7 82. Kentucky SEC 12 -7.8 39.2 31.4 5-7 83. Minnesota B10 12 -11.7 42.5 30.9 3-9 84. Miami OH MAC 12 -2.0 32.8 30.8 4-8 85. Louisiana-Lafayette Sun 12 2.8 27.5 30.3 8-4 86. Hawai`i WAC 13 1.3 28.7 30.1 6-7 87. San José St WAC 12 -4.3 34.3 30.0 5-7 88. Fresno St WAC 13 -5.5 34.6 29.1 4-9 89. Western Kentucky Sun 12 -1.1 30.2 29.1 7-5 90. Marshall CUS 12 -5.7 34.8 29.0 6-6 91. Mississippi SEC 12 -14.5 43.1 28.6 2-10 92. Bowling Green MAC 12 -2.4 31.0 28.6 5-7 93. Ball St MAC 12 -6.1 34.6 28.5 6-6 94. East Carolina CUS 12 -5.1 33.2 28.2 5-7 95. Colorado P12 13 -14.0 42.1 28.1 3-10 96. Louisiana-Monroe Sun 12 -0.8 29.0 28.1 4-8 97. Duke ACC 12 -8.5 36.4 27.9 3-9 98. UTEP CUS 12 -3.9 31.7 27.9 5-7 99. Kansas B12 12 -17.8 45.4 27.6 2-10 100. Maryland ACC 12 -11.8 39.3 27.5 2-10 101. Army IND 11 -4.5 31.5 27.0 3-8 102. Rice CUS 12 -8.9 35.6 26.7 4-8 103. North Texas Sun 12 -6.1 32.3 26.2 5-7 104. Kent St MAC 12 -6.3 32.2 25.9 5-7 105. Eastern Michigan MAC 12 -2.7 28.2 25.5 6-6 106. Indiana B10 12 -14.2 38.0 23.8 1-11 107. Buffalo MAC 12 -7.5 31.2 23.8 3-9 108. New Mexico St WAC 13 -10.1 32.5 22.4 4-9 109. Central Michigan MAC 12 -9.4 31.3 21.8 3-9 110. Colorado St MWC 12 -8.7 30.4 21.7 3-9 111. Idaho WAC 12 -12.0 33.4 21.5 2-10 112. Troy Sun 12 -10.1 30.1 20.0 3-9 113. Alabama-Birmingham CUS 12 -13.7 30.9 17.2 3-9 114. UNLV MWC 12 -19.9 36.2 16.3 2-10 115. Middle Tennessee St Sun 12 -12.7 28.7 15.9 2-10 116. Tulane CUS 13 -14.2 27.8 13.6 2-11 117. New Mexico MWC 12 -23.6 36.1 12.5 1-11 118. Florida Atlantic Sun 12 -19.5 30.9 11.4 1-11 119. Memphis CUS 12 -15.8 27.0 11.3 2-10 120. Akron MAC 12 -20.5 29.6 9.1 1-11
And by conference:
24. Florida St ACC 12 13.2 33.8 47.0 8-4 26. Virginia Tech ACC 13 9.8 35.6 45.4 11-2 27. Clemson ACC 13 7.4 37.3 44.6 10-3 41. Miami FL ACC 12 4.8 37.1 41.9 6-6 44. North Carolina ACC 12 4.2 36.4 40.6 7-5 46. Georgia Tech ACC 12 7.8 32.8 40.6 8-4 66. North Carolina St ACC 12 2.4 33.5 35.9 7-5 68. Virginia ACC 12 1.2 34.3 35.5 8-4 72. Wake Forest ACC 12 -1.0 35.5 34.6 6-6 80. Boston College ACC 12 -4.8 36.9 32.2 4-8 97. Duke ACC 12 -8.5 36.4 27.9 3-9 100. Maryland ACC 12 -11.8 39.3 27.5 2-10 7. Wisconsin B10 13 21.8 36.7 58.5 11-2 9. Michigan B10 12 15.3 39.7 55.0 10-2 15. Michigan St B10 13 11.2 39.2 50.4 10-3 23. Nebraska B10 12 7.0 41.1 48.1 9-3 29. Penn State B10 12 4.0 40.4 44.4 9-3 34. Ohio State B10 12 3.5 39.8 43.2 6-6 36. Iowa B10 12 5.4 37.5 42.9 7-5 53. Illinois B10 12 0.4 39.1 39.5 6-6 58. Northwestern B10 12 2.1 35.9 37.9 6-6 71. Purdue B10 12 -1.4 36.1 34.6 6-6 83. Minnesota B10 12 -11.7 42.5 30.9 3-9 106. Indiana B10 12 -14.2 38.0 23.8 1-11 2. Oklahoma St B12 12 20.6 43.7 64.2 11-1 6. Oklahoma B12 12 14.0 44.7 58.7 9-3 11. Texas A&M B12 12 8.0 44.4 52.4 6-6 14. Baylor B12 12 7.0 44.0 51.0 9-3 19. Missouri B12 12 6.3 43.0 49.3 7-5 21. Texas B12 12 4.8 44.4 49.1 7-5 22. Kansas St B12 12 4.9 43.3 48.2 10-2 48. Iowa St B12 12 -6.0 46.0 40.0 6-6 62. Texas Tech B12 12 -5.1 42.1 37.0 5-7 99. Kansas B12 12 -17.8 45.4 27.6 2-10 32. West Virginia BgE 12 7.2 36.1 43.3 9-3 35. Cincinnati BgE 12 11.3 31.9 43.2 9-3 50. Pittsburgh BgE 12 1.8 38.1 39.9 6-6 51. South Florida BgE 12 4.3 35.6 39.9 5-7 52. Rutgers BgE 12 6.0 33.7 39.7 8-4 59. Louisville BgE 12 2.4 35.5 37.9 7-5 73. Connecticut BgE 12 -0.4 34.8 34.5 5-7 81. Syracuse BgE 12 -4.6 36.5 31.9 5-7 13. Houston CUS 13 22.4 28.7 51.1 12-1 28. Southern Miss CUS 13 15.5 29.0 44.5 11-2 39. Tulsa CUS 12 6.0 36.5 42.5 8-4 75. SMU CUS 12 0.5 33.7 34.3 7-5 77. Central Florida CUS 12 5.7 28.0 33.7 5-7 90. Marshall CUS 12 -5.7 34.8 29.0 6-6 94. East Carolina CUS 12 -5.1 33.2 28.2 5-7 98. UTEP CUS 12 -3.9 31.7 27.9 5-7 102. Rice CUS 12 -8.9 35.6 26.7 4-8 113. Alabama-Birmingham CUS 12 -13.7 30.9 17.2 3-9 116. Tulane CUS 13 -14.2 27.8 13.6 2-11 119. Memphis CUS 12 -15.8 27.0 11.3 2-10 17. Notre Dame IND 12 8.0 41.5 49.5 8-4 42. Brigham Young IND 12 9.0 31.9 40.9 9-3 69. Navy IND 11 0.7 34.6 35.3 4-7 101. Army IND 11 -4.5 31.5 27.0 3-8 31. Toledo MAC 12 9.8 33.8 43.6 8-4 47. Temple MAC 12 12.7 27.8 40.4 8-4 55. Northern Illinois MAC 13 7.8 31.2 39.0 10-3 65. Western Michigan MAC 12 6.5 29.7 36.2 7-5 70. Ohio U. MAC 13 9.2 26.1 35.3 9-4 84. Miami OH MAC 12 -2.0 32.8 30.8 4-8 92. Bowling Green MAC 12 -2.4 31.0 28.6 5-7 93. Ball St MAC 12 -6.1 34.6 28.5 6-6 104. Kent St MAC 12 -6.3 32.2 25.9 5-7 105. Eastern Michigan MAC 12 -2.7 28.2 25.5 6-6 107. Buffalo MAC 12 -7.5 31.2 23.8 3-9 109. Central Michigan MAC 12 -9.4 31.3 21.8 3-9 120. Akron MAC 12 -20.5 29.6 9.1 1-11 8. Boise St MWC 12 20.9 34.2 55.1 11-1 18. TCU MWC 12 17.1 32.3 49.4 10-2 60. San Diego St MWC 12 5.1 32.7 37.8 8-4 63. Air Force MWC 12 5.4 31.0 36.4 7-5 78. Wyoming MWC 12 0.9 31.5 32.4 8-4 110. Colorado St MWC 12 -8.7 30.4 21.7 3-9 114. UNLV MWC 12 -19.9 36.2 16.3 2-10 117. New Mexico MWC 12 -23.6 36.1 12.5 1-11 4. Oregon P12 13 18.7 41.1 59.8 11-2 5. Stanford P12 12 19.3 39.6 58.8 11-1 10. Southern Cal P12 12 11.0 42.1 53.2 10-2 25. Arizona St P12 12 6.6 39.6 46.2 6-6 30. California P12 12 4.4 39.5 43.9 7-5 40. Utah P12 12 3.9 38.6 42.5 7-5 49. Washington P12 12 -1.3 41.3 39.9 7-5 61. Arizona P12 12 -4.9 42.7 37.8 4-8 64. UCLA P12 13 -7.5 43.8 36.3 6-7 74. Washington St P12 12 -3.1 37.4 34.4 4-8 76. Oregon St P12 12 -9.0 43.1 34.1 3-9 95. Colorado P12 13 -14.0 42.1 28.1 3-10 1. LSU SEC 13 24.4 41.4 65.8 13-0 3. Alabama SEC 12 23.4 40.4 63.8 11-1 12. Arkansas SEC 12 12.3 39.6 51.8 10-2 16. Georgia SEC 13 10.2 39.3 49.5 10-3 20. South Carolina SEC 12 10.1 39.2 49.3 10-2 33. Vanderbilt SEC 12 4.2 39.0 43.2 6-6 37. Florida SEC 12 2.8 40.1 42.9 6-6 38. Mississippi St SEC 12 3.9 38.8 42.6 6-6 43. Tennessee SEC 12 -1.9 42.7 40.8 5-7 57. Auburn SEC 12 -3.7 42.2 38.6 7-5 82. Kentucky SEC 12 -7.8 39.2 31.4 5-7 91. Mississippi SEC 12 -14.5 43.1 28.6 2-10 54. Arkansas St Sun 12 13.1 26.0 39.1 10-2 79. Florida Int'l Sun 12 6.6 25.7 32.4 8-4 85. Louisiana-Lafayette Sun 12 2.8 27.5 30.3 8-4 89. Western Kentucky Sun 12 -1.1 30.2 29.1 7-5 96. Louisiana-Monroe Sun 12 -0.8 29.0 28.1 4-8 103. North Texas Sun 12 -6.1 32.3 26.2 5-7 112. Troy Sun 12 -10.1 30.1 20.0 3-9 115. Middle Tennessee St Sun 12 -12.7 28.7 15.9 2-10 118. Florida Atlantic Sun 12 -19.5 30.9 11.4 1-11 45. Louisiana Tech WAC 12 7.5 33.1 40.6 8-4 56. Nevada WAC 12 6.1 32.5 38.6 7-5 67. Utah St WAC 12 5.1 30.7 35.8 7-5 86. Hawai`i WAC 13 1.3 28.7 30.1 6-7 87. San José St WAC 12 -4.3 34.3 30.0 5-7 88. Fresno St WAC 13 -5.5 34.6 29.1 4-9 108. New Mexico St WAC 13 -10.1 32.5 22.4 4-9 111. Idaho WAC 12 -12.0 33.4 21.5 2-10
There’s just one game left in the college football regular season: Navy at Army (+5.3 according to the SRS) at West Point this weekend. What were the most impressive wins of the season? Shockingly, Oklahoma or Oklahoma State come up five times in the top six. The Cowboys win this weekend ranked as the highest game of the season; listed below are the top 40 single game SRS scores:
date Team PF Opp PA H/R/N MOV SOS SRS 3-Dec-11 Oklahoma St 44 Oklahoma 10 home 27.5 58.7 86.2 12-Nov-11 Oregon 53 Stanford 30 road 25.0 58.8 83.8 29-Oct-11 Oklahoma 58 Kansas St 17 road 34.0 48.2 82.2 12-Nov-11 Oklahoma St 66 Texas Tech 6 road 43.5 37.0 80.5 8-Oct-11 Oklahoma 55 Texas 17 ntrl 31.0 49.1 80.1 29-Oct-11 Oklahoma St 59 Baylor 24 home 28.0 51.0 79.0 3-Dec-11 LSU 42 Georgia 10 ntrl 28.0 49.5 77.5 17-Sep-11 Utah 54 Brigham Young 10 road 35.5 40.9 76.4 3-Dec-11 Southern Miss 49 Houston 28 road 24.0 51.1 75.1 15-Oct-11 Texas A&M 55 Baylor 28 home 24.0 51.0 75.0 1-Oct-11 Wisconsin 48 Nebraska 17 home 26.0 48.1 74.1 26-Nov-11 Wisconsin 45 Penn State 7 home 29.5 44.4 73.9 10-Sep-11 Oregon 69 Nevada 20 home 35.0 38.6 73.6 22-Oct-11 Oklahoma St 45 Missouri 24 road 24.0 49.3 73.3 25-Nov-11 Alabama 38 Arkansas 14 home 21.0 51.8 72.8 24-Sep-11 LSU 41 Arkansas 17 home 21.0 51.8 72.8 3-Sep-11 LSU 40 Oregon 27 ntrl 13.0 59.8 72.8 19-Nov-11 Michigan 45 Nebraska 17 home 24.5 48.1 72.6 22-Oct-11 Stanford 65 Washington 21 home 32.5 39.9 72.4 12-Nov-11 Arkansas 49 Tennessee 7 home 31.5 40.8 72.3 17-Sep-11 Wisconsin 49 Nor. Illinois 7 ntrl 33.0 39.0 72.0 25-Nov-11 Houston 48 Tulsa 16 road 29.5 42.5 72.0 26-Nov-11 Southern Cal 50 UCLA 0 home 35.5 36.3 71.8 3-Dec-11 Clemson 38 Virginia Tech 10 ntrl 26.0 45.4 71.4 18-Nov-11 Iowa St 37 Oklahoma St 31 home 7.0 64.2 71.2 24-Sep-11 Arizona St 43 Southern Cal 22 home 18.0 53.2 71.2 5-Nov-11 LSU 9 Alabama 6 road 7.0 63.8 70.8 8-Oct-11 Alabama 34 Vanderbilt 0 home 27.5 43.2 70.7 1-Oct-11 Alabama 38 Florida 10 road 27.5 42.9 70.4 1-Oct-11 Michigan 58 Minnesota 0 home 39.5 30.9 70.4 3-Dec-11 Baylor 48 Texas 24 home 21.0 49.1 70.1 24-Sep-11 LSU 47 West Virginia 21 road 26.5 43.3 69.8 15-Oct-11 LSU 38 Tennessee 7 road 29.0 40.8 69.8 16-Sep-11 Boise St 40 Toledo 15 road 26.0 43.6 69.6 3-Sep-11 Oklahoma 47 Tulsa 14 home 27.0 42.5 69.5 17-Sep-11 Oklahoma St 59 Tulsa 33 road 26.5 42.5 69.0 6-Oct-11 Oregon 43 California 15 home 24.5 43.9 68.4 8-Oct-11 LSU 41 Florida 11 home 25.5 42.9 68.4 29-Oct-11 Nebraska 24 Michigan St 3 home 18.0 50.4 68.4 1-Oct-11 Clemson 23 Virginia Tech 3 road 23.0 45.4 68.4
How about the biggest upsets? We can look at that by comparing the SRS scores of the two teams:
Date Team PF Opp PA H/R/N TmSRS OpSRS Diff 17-Nov-11 Alabama-Birm. 34 Southern Miss 31 home 17.2 44.5 27.3 18-Nov-11 Iowa St 37 Oklahoma St 31 home 40.0 64.2 24.2 22-Oct-11 Texas Tech 41 Oklahoma 38 road 37.0 58.7 21.7 1-Oct-11 Central Mich. 48 Northern Ill. 41 home 21.8 39.0 17.2 20-Oct-11 Alabama-Birm. 26 Central Florida 24 home 17.2 33.7 16.5 3-Sep-11 Sacramento St 29 Oregon St 28 road 17.8 34.1 16.3 10-Sep-11 Marshall 26 Southern Miss 20 home 29.0 44.5 15.5 29-Oct-11 Ohio State 33 Wisconsin 29 home 43.2 58.5 15.3 1-Oct-11 SMU 40 TCU 33 road 34.3 49.4 15.1 5-Sep-11 Maryland 32 Miami FL 24 home 27.5 41.9 14.4 25-Nov-11 Colorado 17 Utah 14 road 28.1 42.5 14.4 3-Sep-11 Richmond 23 Duke 21 road 13.8 27.9 14.1 24-Sep-11 Colorado St 35 Utah St 34 road 21.7 35.8 14.1 17-Sep-11 UNLV 40 Hawai`i 20 home 16.3 30.1 13.8 8-Oct-11 Wake Forest 35 Florida St 30 home 34.6 47.0 12.4 5-Nov-11 Iowa 24 Michigan 16 home 42.9 55.0 12.1 29-Oct-11 Minnesota 22 Iowa 21 home 30.9 42.9 12.0 22-Oct-11 Bowling Green 13 Temple 10 home 28.6 40.4 11.8 12-Nov-11 Washington St 37 Arizona St 27 home 34.4 46.2 11.8 24-Sep-11 Syracuse 33 Toledo 30 home 31.9 43.6 11.7 19-Nov-11 Virginia 14 Florida St 13 road 35.5 47.0 11.5 8-Oct-11 Buffalo 38 Ohio U. 37 home 23.8 35.3 11.5 10-Sep-11 Kansas 45 Northern Ill. 42 home 27.6 39.0 11.4 21-Oct-11 Syracuse 49 West Virginia 23 home 31.9 43.3 11.4 17-Sep-11 Army 21 Northwestern 14 home 27.0 37.9 10.9 22-Oct-11 Eastern Mich. 14 Western Mich. 10 home 25.5 36.2 10.7 1-Oct-11 Auburn 16 South Carolina 13 road 38.6 49.3 10.7 1-Oct-11 Hawai`i 44 Louisiana Tech 26 road 30.1 40.6 10.5 5-Nov-11 Northwestern 28 Nebraska 25 road 37.9 48.1 10.2
Those three biggest upsets had large BCS ramifications. Southern Miss may have made the BCS as a 12-1 conference champ riding an 11-game winning streak if not for the shocking loss to UAB two weeks before upsetting Houston. OSU, of course, would have made the BCS game if not for the Iowa State loss, while Oklahoma’s loss to Texas Tech was the first in a long line of upsets among the BCS contenders.
Oklahoma State vs. Alabama
Why did the Cowboys top the Tide? Partly because of the harder SOS, but another reason was the Crimson Tide’s decision not to obliterate the three weak non-conference opponents it faced:
Date Team PF Opp PA H/R MOV SOS SRS
3-Dec-11 Oklahoma St 44 Oklahoma 10 hm 27.5 58.7 86.2
12-Nov-11 Oklahoma St 66 Texas Tech 6 rd 43.5 37.0 80.5
29-Oct-11 Oklahoma St 59 Baylor 24 hm 28.0 51.0 79.0
22-Oct-11 Oklahoma St 45 Missouri 24 rd 24.0 49.3 73.3
17-Sep-11 Oklahoma St 59 Tulsa 33 rd 26.5 42.5 69.0
15-Oct-11 Oklahoma St 38 Texas 26 rd 15.0 49.1 64.1
24-Sep-11 Oklahoma St 30 Texas A&M 29 rd 7.0 52.4 59.4
8-Oct-11 Oklahoma St 70 Kansas 28 hm 31.5 27.6 59.1
8-Sep-11 Oklahoma St 37 Arizona 14 hm 20.0 37.8 57.8
5-Nov-11 Oklahoma St 52 Kansas St 45 hm 7.0 48.2 55.2
3-Sep-11 Oklahoma St 61 Louisiana-La. 34 hm 24.0 30.3 54.3
18-Nov-11 Oklahoma St 31 Iowa St 37 rd -7.0 40.0 33.0
Oklahoma St 49.3 Average 25.8 20.6 43.7 64.2
24-Sep-11 Alabama 38 Arkansas 14 hm 21.0 51.8 72.8
8-Oct-11 Alabama 34 Vanderbilt 0 hm 27.5 43.2 70.7
1-Oct-11 Alabama 38 Florida 10 rd 27.5 42.9 70.4
22-Oct-11 Alabama 37 Tennessee 6 hm 26.0 40.8 66.8
26-Nov-11 Alabama 42 Auburn 14 rd 27.5 38.6 66.1
15-Oct-11 Alabama 52 Mississippi 7 rd 36.0 28.6 64.6
10-Sep-11 Alabama 27 Penn State 11 rd 19.0 44.4 63.4
12-Nov-11 Alabama 24 Miss. St 7 rd 20.0 42.6 62.6
5-Nov-11 Alabama 6 LSU 9 hm -7.0 65.8 58.8
17-Sep-11 Alabama 41 North Texas 0 hm 31.0 26.2 57.2
3-Sep-11 Alabama 48 Kent St 7 hm 31.0 25.9 56.9
19-Nov-11 Alabama 45 Georgia Sout. 21 hm 21.0 34.3 55.3
Alabama 36.0 Average 8.8 23.4 40.4 63.8
As a fan, I don’t love that Alabama scheduled Kent State, North Texas and FCS Georgia Southern. That said, those games are probably not very telling when it comes to Alabama. Remove them, and Alabama’s line reads 21.9–44.3–66.3, which actually puts them ahead of LSU. Of course, remove Western Kentucky and FCS Northwestern State for LSU, and their line jumps to 23.3–44.8–68.1. So perhaps a two-point line in favor of LSU — maybe 3.5 if you consider the Sugar Bowl a partial home game — would be appropriate for the Tigers.
But as good as Alabama is, we can’t avoid the fact that they got into the game in large part due to reputation. The SRS says their toughest five opponents were LSU, Arkansas, Penn State, Vanderbilt and Florida. Alabama’s 2nd best win came over the 29th best SRS team, and the top win came against the SRS #12. That’s just not an impressive set of heads. Had LSU lost to Alabama, they would have had a much stronger case. LSU would have had Arkansas and Florida, and West Virginia and Penn State are interchangeable. But the Tigers would have the win over Oregon compared to the win against Vanderbilt. And that’s an enormous difference.
For Oklahoma State, they had a bunch of impressive wins. They beat all of Big 12 top teams; in fact, they went 6-0 against the Big 12 teams that are in the SRS top 25. But the loss to Iowa State was ultimately too large to ignore.
As 70 teams prepare for 35 Bowl games, we can set imaginary point spreads for every game. I’ve done that for you, below:
Date Bowl Favorite Underdog F_SRS U_SRS Spread Avg Dec. 30 Insight Oklahoma Iowa 58.7 42.9 15.8 50.8 Dec. 31 Meineke Car Care Texas A&M Northwestern 52.4 37.9 14.5 45.2 Dec. 29 Alamo Baylor Washington 51.0 39.9 11.1 45.5 Jan. 3 Sugar Michigan Virginia Tech 55.0 45.4 9.6 50.2 Dec. 22 Las Vegas Boise St Arizona St 55.1 46.2 8.9 50.7 Dec. 21 Poinsettia TCU Louisiana Tech 49.4 40.6 8.8 45.0 Dec. 26 Independence Missouri North Carolina 49.3 40.6 8.7 45.0 Dec. 30 Music City Mississippi St Wake Forest 42.6 34.6 8.0 38.6 Dec. 17 New Mexico Temple Wyoming 40.4 32.4 8.0 36.4 Dec. 17 New Orleans San Diego St Louisiana-Laf. 37.8 30.3 7.5 34.1 Dec. 28 Military Bowl Toledo Air Force 43.6 36.4 7.2 40.0 Jan. 2 TicketCity Houston Penn State 51.1 44.4 6.7 47.8 Dec. 24 Hawaii Southern Miss Nevada 44.5 38.6 5.9 41.6 Jan. 7 BBVA Compass Bowl Pittsburgh SMU 39.9 34.3 5.6 37.1 Jan. 2 Fiesta Oklahoma St Stanford 64.2 58.8 5.4 61.5 Dec. 28 Holiday Texas California 49.1 43.9 5.2 46.5 Jan. 6 Cotton Arkansas Kansas St 51.8 48.2 3.6 50.0 Dec. 20 St. Petersburg Florida Int'l Marshall 32.4 29.0 3.4 30.7 Dec. 31 Kraft Illinois UCLA 39.5 36.3 3.2 37.9 Dec. 31 Chick-fil-A Auburn Virginia 38.6 35.5 3.1 37.1 Dec. 29 Champs Sports Notre Dame Florida St 49.5 47.0 2.5 48.3 Jan. 9 BCS NCG LSU Alabama 65.8 63.8 2.0 64.8 Dec. 27 Belk Louisville North Car. St 37.9 35.9 2.0 36.9 Dec. 31 Sun Utah Georgia Tech 42.5 40.6 1.9 41.6 Dec. 30 Armed Forces Tulsa Brigham Young 42.5 40.9 1.6 41.7 Dec. 27 Little Caesars Western Mich. Purdue 36.2 34.6 1.6 35.4 Jan. 4 Orange Clemson West Virginia 44.6 43.3 1.3 44.0 Jan. 2 Rose Bowl Oregon Wisconsin 59.8 58.5 1.3 59.2 Jan. 2 Capital One South Carolina Nebraska 49.3 48.1 1.2 48.7 Jan. 2 Outback Michigan St Georgia 50.4 49.5 0.9 50.0 Dec. 17 Idaho Potato Bowl Utah St Ohio U. 35.8 35.3 0.5 35.6 Jan. 2 Gator Ohio State Florida 43.2 42.9 0.3 43.1 Dec. 30 Pinstripe Iowa St Rutgers 40.0 39.7 0.3 39.9 Jan. 8 GoDaddy.com Arkansas St Northern Ill. 39.1 39.0 0.1 39.1 Dec. 31 Liberty Cincinnati Vanderbilt 43.2 43.2 0.0 43.2
We can also sort my highest average SRS score, i.e., the matchup between the best teams:
Date Bowl Favorite Underdog F_SRS U_SRS Spread Avg Jan. 9 BCS NCG LSU Alabama 65.8 63.8 2.0 64.8 Jan. 2 Fiesta Oklahoma St Stanford 64.2 58.8 5.4 61.5 Jan. 2 Rose Bowl Oregon Wisconsin 59.8 58.5 1.3 59.2 Dec. 30 Insight Oklahoma Iowa 58.7 42.9 15.8 50.8 Dec. 22 Las Vegas Boise St Arizona St 55.1 46.2 8.9 50.7 Jan. 3 Sugar Michigan Virginia Tech 55.0 45.4 9.6 50.2 Jan. 6 Cotton Arkansas Kansas St 51.8 48.2 3.6 50.0 Jan. 2 Outback Michigan St Georgia 50.4 49.5 0.9 50.0 Jan. 2 Capital One South Carolina Nebraska 49.3 48.1 1.2 48.7 Dec. 29 Champs Sports Notre Dame Florida St 49.5 47.0 2.5 48.3 Jan. 2 TicketCity Houston Penn State 51.1 44.4 6.7 47.8 Dec. 28 Holiday Texas California 49.1 43.9 5.2 46.5 Dec. 29 Alamo Baylor Washington 51.0 39.9 11.1 45.5 Dec. 31 Meineke Car Care Texas A&M Northwestern 52.4 37.9 14.5 45.2 Dec. 21 Poinsettia TCU Louisiana Tech 49.4 40.6 8.8 45.0 Dec. 26 Independence Missouri North Carolina 49.3 40.6 8.7 45.0 Jan. 4 Orange Clemson West Virginia 44.6 43.3 1.3 44.0 Dec. 31 Liberty Cincinnati Vanderbilt 43.2 43.2 0.0 43.2 Jan. 2 Gator Ohio State Florida 43.2 42.9 0.3 43.1 Dec. 30 Armed Forces Tulsa Brigham Young 42.5 40.9 1.6 41.7 Dec. 24 Hawaii Southern Miss Nevada 44.5 38.6 5.9 41.6 Dec. 31 Sun Utah Georgia Tech 42.5 40.6 1.9 41.6 Dec. 28 Military Bowl Toledo Air Force 43.6 36.4 7.2 40.0 Dec. 30 Pinstripe Iowa St Rutgers 40.0 39.7 0.3 39.9 Jan. 8 GoDaddy.com Arkansas St Northern Ill. 39.1 39.0 0.1 39.1 Dec. 30 Music City Mississippi St Wake Forest 42.6 34.6 8.0 38.6 Dec. 31 Kraft Illinois UCLA 39.5 36.3 3.2 37.9 Jan. 7 BBVA Compass Bowl Pittsburgh SMU 39.9 34.3 5.6 37.1 Dec. 31 Chick-fil-A Auburn Virginia 38.6 35.5 3.1 37.1 Dec. 27 Belk Louisville North Car. St 37.9 35.9 2.0 36.9 Dec. 17 New Mexico Temple Wyoming 40.4 32.4 8.0 36.4 Dec. 17 Idaho Potato Bowl Utah St Ohio U. 35.8 35.3 0.5 35.6 Dec. 27 Little Caesars Western Mich. Purdue 36.2 34.6 1.6 35.4 Dec. 17 New Orleans San Diego St Louisiana-Laf. 37.8 30.3 7.5 34.1 Dec. 20 St. Petersburg Florida Int'l Marshall 32.4 29.0 3.4 30.7
Finally, here is the listing by date:
Date Bowl Favorite Underdog F_SRS U_SRS Spread Avg Dec. 17 New Mexico Temple Wyoming 40.4 32.4 8.0 36.4 Dec. 17 New Orleans San Diego St Louisiana-Laf. 37.8 30.3 7.5 34.1 Dec. 17 Idaho Potato Bowl Utah St Ohio U. 35.8 35.3 0.5 35.6 Dec. 20 St. Petersburg Florida Int'l Marshall 32.4 29.0 3.4 30.7 Dec. 21 Poinsettia TCU Louisiana Tech 49.4 40.6 8.8 45.0 Dec. 22 Las Vegas Boise St Arizona St 55.1 46.2 8.9 50.7 Dec. 24 Hawaii Southern Miss Nevada 44.5 38.6 5.9 41.6 Dec. 26 Independence Missouri North Carolina 49.3 40.6 8.7 45.0 Dec. 27 Belk Louisville North Car. St 37.9 35.9 2.0 36.9 Dec. 27 Little Caesars Western Mich. Purdue 36.2 34.6 1.6 35.4 Dec. 28 Military Bowl Toledo Air Force 43.6 36.4 7.2 40.0 Dec. 28 Holiday Texas California 49.1 43.9 5.2 46.5 Dec. 29 Alamo Baylor Washington 51.0 39.9 11.1 45.5 Dec. 29 Champs Sports Notre Dame Florida St 49.5 47.0 2.5 48.3 Dec. 30 Insight Oklahoma Iowa 58.7 42.9 15.8 50.8 Dec. 30 Music City Mississippi St Wake Forest 42.6 34.6 8.0 38.6 Dec. 30 Armed Forces Tulsa Brigham Young 42.5 40.9 1.6 41.7 Dec. 30 Pinstripe Iowa St Rutgers 40.0 39.7 0.3 39.9 Dec. 31 Meineke Car Care Texas A&M Northwestern 52.4 37.9 14.5 45.2 Dec. 31 Kraft Illinois UCLA 39.5 36.3 3.2 37.9 Dec. 31 Chick-fil-A Auburn Virginia 38.6 35.5 3.1 37.1 Dec. 31 Sun Utah Georgia Tech 42.5 40.6 1.9 41.6 Dec. 31 Liberty Cincinnati Vanderbilt 43.2 43.2 0.0 43.2 Jan. 2 TicketCity Houston Penn State 51.1 44.4 6.7 47.8 Jan. 2 Fiesta Oklahoma St Stanford 64.2 58.8 5.4 61.5 Jan. 2 Rose Bowl Oregon Wisconsin 59.8 58.5 1.3 59.2 Jan. 2 Capital One South Carolina Nebraska 49.3 48.1 1.2 48.7 Jan. 2 Outback Michigan St Georgia 50.4 49.5 0.9 50.0 Jan. 2 Gator Ohio State Florida 43.2 42.9 0.3 43.1 Jan. 3 Sugar Michigan Virginia Tech 55.0 45.4 9.6 50.2 Jan. 4 Orange Clemson West Virginia 44.6 43.3 1.3 44.0 Jan. 6 Cotton Arkansas Kansas St 51.8 48.2 3.6 50.0 Jan. 7 BBVA Compass Bowl Pittsburgh SMU 39.9 34.3 5.6 37.1 Jan. 8 GoDaddy.com Arkansas St Northern Ill. 39.1 39.0 0.1 39.1 Jan. 9 BCS NCG LSU Alabama 65.8 63.8 2.0 64.8