By now, you understand how the Simple Rating System works. Last week, Stanford and Boise State were top six teams with BCS aspirations. Following home losses, both teams can still take pride in how far they’ve come: a second straight 12-1 season will be viewed as a disappointment.
As always, thanks to Dr. Peter Wolfe for providing the game scores. Here are the SRS results through week 10. The SRS places equal weight on each game and cares more about margin of victory than records (which is why it’s a predictive system). As a result, Stanford (5th last week) and Boise State (7th last week) are still top 10 teams, as is 5-5 Texas A&M. All three of those teams are 16+ favorites this week.
Rk Team Conf G MOV SOS SRS Rec 1. Oklahoma St B12 10 22.7 44.7 67.3 10-0 2. Alabama SEC 10 23.2 43.0 66.2 9-1 3. LSU SEC 10 23.0 43.0 66.0 10-0 4. Oklahoma B12 9 20.6 45.5 66.0 8-1 5. Oregon P12 10 21.1 43.2 64.2 9-1 6. Stanford P12 10 22.0 40.0 62.0 9-1 7. Wisconsin B10 10 23.3 36.6 59.9 8-2 8. Boise St MWC 9 19.9 38.9 58.8 8-1 9. Michigan B10 10 15.2 41.0 56.2 8-2 10. Texas A&M B12 10 6.6 47.9 54.5 5-5 11. Notre Dame IND 10 10.7 43.0 53.7 7-3 12. Texas B12 9 8.7 44.7 53.4 6-3 13. Georgia SEC 10 13.7 39.7 53.3 8-2 14. Missouri B12 10 5.5 47.5 53.0 5-5 15. Houston CUS 10 26.0 26.8 52.8 10-0 16. Arkansas SEC 10 14.3 38.4 52.7 9-1 17. Southern Cal P12 10 9.0 43.5 52.5 8-2 18. TCU MWC 10 15.1 36.7 51.8 8-2 19. Nebraska B10 10 9.9 41.8 51.7 8-2 20. Arizona St P12 10 9.8 41.8 51.6 6-4 21. Michigan St B10 10 9.9 41.5 51.4 8-2 22. South Carolina SEC 10 8.5 42.3 50.8 8-2 23. Florida St ACC 10 14.9 35.6 50.5 7-3 24. Kansas St B12 10 4.5 45.9 50.3 8-2 25. Virginia Tech ACC 10 12.1 36.9 49.0 9-1 26. Clemson ACC 10 10.9 38.0 48.9 9-1 27. Penn State B10 10 6.9 41.3 48.2 8-2 28. Baylor B12 9 3.5 44.3 47.8 6-3 29. Southern Miss CUS 10 14.9 32.1 47.0 9-1 30. Cincinnati BgE 9 13.6 33.1 46.7 7-2 31. Ohio State B10 10 5.8 40.9 46.7 6-4 32. Miami FL ACC 10 6.1 40.4 46.5 5-5 33. Utah P12 10 4.7 41.6 46.3 6-4 34. Tulsa CUS 10 7.4 38.5 45.9 7-3 35. Florida SEC 10 3.1 42.8 45.9 5-5 36. South Florida BgE 9 8.8 36.6 45.4 5-4 37. West Virginia BgE 10 8.0 37.3 45.3 7-3 38. Georgia Tech ACC 10 10.1 34.9 45.0 7-3 39. Toledo MAC 10 7.1 37.7 44.8 6-4 40. Mississippi St SEC 10 4.8 40.0 44.7 5-5 41. Iowa B10 10 6.2 38.5 44.7 6-4 42. Illinois B10 10 3.6 40.8 44.4 6-4 43. Vanderbilt SEC 10 2.7 41.2 43.9 5-5 44. Washington P12 10 -1.6 45.0 43.4 6-4 45. California P12 10 4.1 39.0 43.0 6-4 46. Tennessee SEC 10 -3.0 45.8 42.8 4-6 47. Rutgers BgE 10 7.4 35.0 42.3 7-3 48. Northern Illinois MAC 10 8.8 33.4 42.1 7-3 49. North Carolina ACC 10 3.8 38.4 42.1 6-4 50. Temple MAC 10 11.3 30.6 41.8 6-4 51. Pittsburgh BgE 10 1.2 40.4 41.6 5-5 52. Auburn SEC 10 -3.3 44.7 41.4 6-4 53. Nevada WAC 9 5.6 35.7 41.3 6-3 54. Brigham Young IND 10 5.7 35.5 41.1 7-3 55. Louisiana Tech WAC 10 5.1 36.0 41.1 6-4 56. Northwestern B10 10 3.0 37.5 40.5 5-5 57. San Diego St MWC 9 6.0 34.4 40.4 6-3 58. Arkansas St Sun 10 10.5 29.7 40.2 8-2 59. Texas Tech B12 10 -3.1 43.2 40.1 5-5 60. Arizona P12 10 -7.3 45.9 38.6 2-8 61. Virginia ACC 10 4.0 34.5 38.5 7-3 62. SMU CUS 10 3.2 35.3 38.5 6-4 63. Ohio U. MAC 10 11.2 26.9 38.1 7-3 64. Iowa St B12 9 -6.1 44.1 38.1 5-4 65. Navy IND 10 0.8 37.2 38.0 4-6 66. Wake Forest ACC 10 0.1 37.8 37.9 5-5 67. Purdue B10 10 -1.5 39.4 37.9 5-5 68. Utah St WAC 9 4.2 33.6 37.8 4-5 69. Air Force MWC 10 1.5 36.4 37.8 5-5 70. Western Michigan MAC 10 3.7 33.9 37.6 5-5 71. Washington St P12 10 -1.6 39.1 37.5 4-6 72. UCLA P12 10 -7.7 45.1 37.4 5-5 73. Louisville BgE 10 -0.1 37.1 37.0 5-5 74. Central Florida CUS 10 6.2 29.6 35.8 4-6 75. Hawai`i WAC 10 4.0 31.5 35.5 5-5 76. North Carolina St ACC 10 -0.4 35.6 35.2 5-5 77. Connecticut BgE 9 0.5 34.7 35.2 4-5 78. Wyoming MWC 9 0.6 34.1 34.7 6-3 79. Syracuse BgE 10 -2.5 37.1 34.6 5-5 80. Oregon St P12 10 -9.7 43.8 34.1 2-8 81. Miami OH MAC 10 -1.0 34.4 33.4 4-6 82. Florida Int'l Sun 10 5.0 28.3 33.3 6-4 83. UTEP CUS 10 -0.5 33.2 32.7 5-5 84. Louisiana-Lafayette Sun 11 3.6 28.9 32.6 8-3 85. Maryland ACC 10 -11.1 42.8 31.7 2-8 86. San José St WAC 10 -5.9 37.3 31.4 3-7 87. Marshall CUS 10 -8.3 39.7 31.4 4-6 88. Ball St MAC 10 -5.4 36.5 31.1 6-4 89. Fresno St WAC 10 -6.4 37.5 31.1 3-7 90. Boston College ACC 10 -6.8 37.8 31.0 3-7 91. Mississippi SEC 10 -11.2 42.2 31.0 2-8 92. Colorado P12 11 -14.5 45.4 30.9 2-9 93. Minnesota B10 10 -14.5 45.4 30.9 2-8 94. Kentucky SEC 10 -8.7 39.2 30.6 4-6 95. Kansas B12 10 -16.2 46.6 30.4 2-8 96. Louisiana-Monroe Sun 10 -2.3 32.5 30.3 3-7 97. Army IND 10 -2.5 32.7 30.2 3-7 98. Duke ACC 10 -7.9 37.8 30.0 3-7 99. Bowling Green MAC 10 -3.9 33.6 29.7 4-6 100. East Carolina CUS 10 -6.1 35.7 29.6 4-6 101. Western Kentucky Sun 10 -4.6 33.8 29.2 5-5 102. Rice CUS 10 -11.6 40.2 28.6 3-7 103. Eastern Michigan MAC 10 -1.8 30.1 28.3 6-4 104. Kent St MAC 10 -6.7 34.9 28.2 4-6 105. Indiana B10 10 -12.3 40.0 27.7 1-9 106. North Texas Sun 10 -9.7 36.7 27.0 4-6 107. New Mexico St WAC 10 -6.4 33.3 26.9 4-6 108. Buffalo MAC 10 -10.4 35.8 25.5 2-8 109. Idaho WAC 10 -9.7 34.8 25.2 2-8 110. Central Michigan MAC 11 -7.8 32.3 24.5 3-8 111. Colorado St MWC 9 -5.6 30.0 24.4 3-6 112. Troy Sun 9 -11.0 33.5 22.5 2-7 113. Middle Tennessee St Sun 9 -8.2 29.8 21.6 2-7 114. UNLV MWC 9 -17.8 37.2 19.4 2-7 115. Alabama-Birmingham CUS 10 -16.4 33.5 17.1 2-8 116. Florida Atlantic Sun 9 -20.3 35.8 15.5 0-9 117. Tulane CUS 11 -15.2 30.1 14.9 2-9 118. New Mexico MWC 10 -23.3 37.1 13.9 1-9 119. Akron MAC 10 -18.0 31.7 13.7 1-9 120. Memphis CUS 10 -15.3 27.4 12.1 2-8
And by conference:
Rk Team Conf G MOV SOS SRS Rec 23. Florida St ACC 10 14.9 35.6 50.5 7-3 25. Virginia Tech ACC 10 12.1 36.9 49.0 9-1 26. Clemson ACC 10 10.9 38.0 48.9 9-1 32. Miami FL ACC 10 6.1 40.4 46.5 5-5 38. Georgia Tech ACC 10 10.1 34.9 45.0 7-3 49. North Carolina ACC 10 3.8 38.4 42.1 6-4 61. Virginia ACC 10 4.0 34.5 38.5 7-3 66. Wake Forest ACC 10 0.1 37.8 37.9 5-5 76. North Carolina St ACC 10 -0.4 35.6 35.2 5-5 85. Maryland ACC 10 -11.1 42.8 31.7 2-8 90. Boston College ACC 10 -6.8 37.8 31.0 3-7 98. Duke ACC 10 -7.9 37.8 30.0 3-7 7. Wisconsin B10 10 23.3 36.6 59.9 8-2 9. Michigan B10 10 15.2 41.0 56.2 8-2 19. Nebraska B10 10 9.9 41.8 51.7 8-2 21. Michigan St B10 10 9.9 41.5 51.4 8-2 27. Penn State B10 10 6.9 41.3 48.2 8-2 31. Ohio State B10 10 5.8 40.9 46.7 6-4 41. Iowa B10 10 6.2 38.5 44.7 6-4 42. Illinois B10 10 3.6 40.8 44.4 6-4 56. Northwestern B10 10 3.0 37.5 40.5 5-5 67. Purdue B10 10 -1.5 39.4 37.9 5-5 93. Minnesota B10 10 -14.5 45.4 30.9 2-8 105. Indiana B10 10 -12.3 40.0 27.7 1-9 1. Oklahoma St B12 10 22.7 44.7 67.3 10-0 4. Oklahoma B12 9 20.6 45.5 66.0 8-1 10. Texas A&M B12 10 6.6 47.9 54.5 5-5 12. Texas B12 9 8.7 44.7 53.4 6-3 14. Missouri B12 10 5.5 47.5 53.0 5-5 24. Kansas St B12 10 4.5 45.9 50.3 8-2 28. Baylor B12 9 3.5 44.3 47.8 6-3 59. Texas Tech B12 10 -3.1 43.2 40.1 5-5 64. Iowa St B12 9 -6.1 44.1 38.1 5-4 95. Kansas B12 10 -16.2 46.6 30.4 2-8 30. Cincinnati BgE 9 13.6 33.1 46.7 7-2 36. South Florida BgE 9 8.8 36.6 45.4 5-4 37. West Virginia BgE 10 8.0 37.3 45.3 7-3 47. Rutgers BgE 10 7.4 35.0 42.3 7-3 51. Pittsburgh BgE 10 1.2 40.4 41.6 5-5 73. Louisville BgE 10 -0.1 37.1 37.0 5-5 77. Connecticut BgE 9 0.5 34.7 35.2 4-5 79. Syracuse BgE 10 -2.5 37.1 34.6 5-5 15. Houston CUS 10 26.0 26.8 52.8 10-0 29. Southern Miss CUS 10 14.9 32.1 47.0 9-1 34. Tulsa CUS 10 7.4 38.5 45.9 7-3 62. SMU CUS 10 3.2 35.3 38.5 6-4 74. Central Florida CUS 10 6.2 29.6 35.8 4-6 83. UTEP CUS 10 -0.5 33.2 32.7 5-5 87. Marshall CUS 10 -8.3 39.7 31.4 4-6 100. East Carolina CUS 10 -6.1 35.7 29.6 4-6 102. Rice CUS 10 -11.6 40.2 28.6 3-7 115. Alabama-Birmingham CUS 10 -16.4 33.5 17.1 2-8 117. Tulane CUS 11 -15.2 30.1 14.9 2-9 120. Memphis CUS 10 -15.3 27.4 12.1 2-8 11. Notre Dame IND 10 10.7 43.0 53.7 7-3 54. Brigham Young IND 10 5.7 35.5 41.1 7-3 65. Navy IND 10 0.8 37.2 38.0 4-6 97. Army IND 10 -2.5 32.7 30.2 3-7 39. Toledo MAC 10 7.1 37.7 44.8 6-4 48. Northern Illinois MAC 10 8.8 33.4 42.1 7-3 50. Temple MAC 10 11.3 30.6 41.8 6-4 63. Ohio U. MAC 10 11.2 26.9 38.1 7-3 70. Western Michigan MAC 10 3.7 33.9 37.6 5-5 81. Miami OH MAC 10 -1.0 34.4 33.4 4-6 88. Ball St MAC 10 -5.4 36.5 31.1 6-4 99. Bowling Green MAC 10 -3.9 33.6 29.7 4-6 103. Eastern Michigan MAC 10 -1.8 30.1 28.3 6-4 104. Kent St MAC 10 -6.7 34.9 28.2 4-6 108. Buffalo MAC 10 -10.4 35.8 25.5 2-8 110. Central Michigan MAC 11 -7.8 32.3 24.5 3-8 119. Akron MAC 10 -18.0 31.7 13.7 1-9 8. Boise St MWC 9 19.9 38.9 58.8 8-1 18. TCU MWC 10 15.1 36.7 51.8 8-2 57. San Diego St MWC 9 6.0 34.4 40.4 6-3 69. Air Force MWC 10 1.5 36.4 37.8 5-5 78. Wyoming MWC 9 0.6 34.1 34.7 6-3 111. Colorado St MWC 9 -5.6 30.0 24.4 3-6 114. UNLV MWC 9 -17.8 37.2 19.4 2-7 118. New Mexico MWC 10 -23.3 37.1 13.9 1-9 5. Oregon P12 10 21.1 43.2 64.2 9-1 6. Stanford P12 10 22.0 40.0 62.0 9-1 17. Southern Cal P12 10 9.0 43.5 52.5 8-2 20. Arizona St P12 10 9.8 41.8 51.6 6-4 33. Utah P12 10 4.7 41.6 46.3 6-4 44. Washington P12 10 -1.6 45.0 43.4 6-4 45. California P12 10 4.1 39.0 43.0 6-4 60. Arizona P12 10 -7.3 45.9 38.6 2-8 71. Washington St P12 10 -1.6 39.1 37.5 4-6 72. UCLA P12 10 -7.7 45.1 37.4 5-5 80. Oregon St P12 10 -9.7 43.8 34.1 2-8 92. Colorado P12 11 -14.5 45.4 30.9 2-9 2. Alabama SEC 10 23.2 43.0 66.2 9-1 3. LSU SEC 10 23.0 43.0 66.0 10-0 13. Georgia SEC 10 13.7 39.7 53.3 8-2 16. Arkansas SEC 10 14.3 38.4 52.7 9-1 22. South Carolina SEC 10 8.5 42.3 50.8 8-2 35. Florida SEC 10 3.1 42.8 45.9 5-5 40. Mississippi St SEC 10 4.8 40.0 44.7 5-5 43. Vanderbilt SEC 10 2.7 41.2 43.9 5-5 46. Tennessee SEC 10 -3.0 45.8 42.8 4-6 52. Auburn SEC 10 -3.3 44.7 41.4 6-4 91. Mississippi SEC 10 -11.2 42.2 31.0 2-8 94. Kentucky SEC 10 -8.7 39.2 30.6 4-6 58. Arkansas St Sun 10 10.5 29.7 40.2 8-2 82. Florida Int'l Sun 10 5.0 28.3 33.3 6-4 84. Louisiana-Lafayette Sun 11 3.6 28.9 32.6 8-3 96. Louisiana-Monroe Sun 10 -2.3 32.5 30.3 3-7 101. Western Kentucky Sun 10 -4.6 33.8 29.2 5-5 106. North Texas Sun 10 -9.7 36.7 27.0 4-6 112. Troy Sun 9 -11.0 33.5 22.5 2-7 113. Middle Tennessee St Sun 9 -8.2 29.8 21.6 2-7 116. Florida Atlantic Sun 9 -20.3 35.8 15.5 0-9 53. Nevada WAC 9 5.6 35.7 41.3 6-3 55. Louisiana Tech WAC 10 5.1 36.0 41.1 6-4 68. Utah St WAC 9 4.2 33.6 37.8 4-5 75. Hawai`i WAC 10 4.0 31.5 35.5 5-5 86. San José St WAC 10 -5.9 37.3 31.4 3-7 89. Fresno St WAC 10 -6.4 37.5 31.1 3-7 107. New Mexico St WAC 10 -6.4 33.3 26.9 4-6 109. Idaho WAC 10 -9.7 34.8 25.2 2-8
Best games of the week: Not surprisingly, Oregon and Oklahoma State both posted SRS grades of over 80 this weekend. Oregon won by 23 on the road (adjusted MOV of 25) against a team with an SRS of 62.0, giving the Ducks a SRS score of 87.0. Oklahoma State won by 60 (43.5) in Lubbock (40.1) for an SRS score of 83.6, in a game that was 49-0 at halftime. Arkansas (31.5, 42.8) picked up a grade of 74.3 against Tennessee, the third highest game of the week.
Wait, we won?: Baylor lost by 35 to Oklahoma State (in another game where OSU’s defense allowed a bunch of garbage yards and points), but that still gave Baylor an SRS grade of 39.3. Baylor’s 1-point win over Kansas (generously upgraded to an adjMOV of 7) gave the Bears only 37.4 points. In fact, this weekend’s win over the Jayhawks was the second worst SRS game of the season for the Bears, placing slightly ahead of a blowout loss against Texas A&M.
Surprising games of the week: We can use the SRS to figure out which teams over- and under-achieved the most – relative to their average performance – this past weekend. By definition, the biggest overachievers (which would be AjdMOV – oppSRS – avgSRS) would simply be the opposite of the biggest underachievers, as the avgSRS and oppSRS for one team are the oppSRS and avgSRS for the other. Oregon and Arkansas were fantastic, as both scored SRS grades of over 20 points above average (and therefore both Stanford and Tennessee were more than 20 points below their average). A surprising outcome that fell under the radar, because of the late kickoff: Arizona State lost by 10 to Washington State. Arizona State (SRS of 51.6) gets an SRS grade of 30.5 in that game, because the Cougars have an SRS of only 37.5. (That Arizona State loss could be doubly painful for Oregon, as it stands to devalue — by the end of the year — two of their four best wins: Arizona State and either ASU or UCLA in the championship game). But it was the other team in the Copper State that produced the biggest dud of the week. Colorado was the big overachiever this weekend (SRS of 30.9) after defeating Arizona by 19 points at home (16, 38.6) for an SRS grade of 54.6. It was also the Buffaloes’ first Pac-12 win since joining the conference.
On the season: How good was Oregon’s win? The SRS grade of 87.0 was the highest mark this season, topping Oklahoma’s 84.4 against Texas. Oklahoma also had the third highest SRS game of the season, posting an 84.3 against Kansas State.
Oklahoma is certainly responsible for the biggest dud this season by any elite team. Somehow, the Sooners lost at home to Texas Tech (SRS of 40.1), for an SRS grade of 33.1, a full 32.9 points below their average. That comes in as the 4th biggest shock of the season, trailing Hawaii losing by 20 to UNLV, West Virginia losing by 26 to Syracuse and Alabama-Birmingham getting blown out 49-10 by Tulane.
Last week, SEC fans probably liked the fact that the top two teams in the conference were LSU and Alabama. But this week, the Cowboys are now on top. Let’s compare the Tigers and the Cowboys:
Date Team PF Opp PA H/R MOV SOS SRS 12-Nov-11 OSU 66 Texas Tech 6 R 43.5 40.1 83.6 22-Oct-11 OSU 45 Missouri 24 R 24.0 53.0 77.0 29-Oct-11 OSU 59 Baylor 24 H 28.0 47.8 75.8 17-Sep-11 OSU 59 Tulsa 33 R 26.5 45.9 72.4 15-Oct-11 OSU 38 Texas 26 R 15.0 53.4 68.4 8-Oct-11 OSU 70 Kansas 28 H 31.5 30.4 61.9 24-Sep-11 OSU 30 Texas A&M 29 R 7.0 54.5 61.5 8-Sep-11 OSU 37 Arizona 14 H 20.0 38.6 58.6 5-Nov-11 OSU 52 Kansas St 45 H 7.0 50.3 57.3 3-Sep-11 OSU 61 Lo-Lafa. 34 H 24.0 32.6 56.6 Average 22.7 44.7 67.3 3-Sep-11 LSU 40 Oregon 27 N 13.0 64.2 77.2 5-Nov-11 LSU 9 Alabama 6 R 7.0 66.2 73.2 15-Oct-11 LSU 38 Tennessee 7 R 29.0 42.8 71.8 24-Sep-11 LSU 47 West Virg. 21 R 26.5 45.3 71.8 8-Oct-11 LSU 41 Florida 11 H 25.5 45.9 71.4 22-Oct-11 LSU 45 Auburn 10 H 28.0 41.4 69.4 15-Sep-11 LSU 19 Miss. St 6 R 16.0 44.7 60.7 12-Nov-11 LSU 42 W. Kentucky 9 H 27.0 29.2 56.2 1-Oct-11 LSU 35 Kentucky 7 H 24.5 30.6 55.1 10-Sep-11 LSU 49 N'west. St 3 H 33.5 20.0 53.5 Average 23.0 43.0 66.0
If we’re comparing LSU and Oklahoma State, we can probably get rid of the FCS and Sun Belt games (although Louisiana-Lafayette actually has a higher SRS grade than either Kentucky or Kansas). After eliminating those games, LSU rises to 68.8, just ahead of Oklahoma State’s 68.5. But there’s no denying that OSU is an elite team. The Cowboys obliterated Texas Tech, Baylor and Tulsa, while handling Missouri and Texas with ease. LSU and OSU appear on a collision course to a fantastic national championship game. The biggest hurdle there, of course, is the Bedlam battle on Dec. 3. At this point, Oklahoma State would be a 4.5 point favorite against the Sooners, according to the SRS. The second biggest hurdle comes in the form of Arkansas. While the gap between the Tigers and the Razorbacks narrowed this week, the SRS still pegs LSU as a 16.5 point favorite. In fact, the SEC Championship Game against Georgia would likely be a closer battle. That game is scheduled for a 4:00 kickoff, and I suspect Bedlam will begin at 8:00. That should be a fantastic cap to the regular season.