Last week, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Oregon all ranked in the top five of the SRS. And while all three lost this weekend as big favorites — and each of their SRS ratings dropped significantly — they had built up such a large lead over the rest of the pack that they remain in the top five. Let’s break it down:
Oklahoma State was at 67.3 but lost to Iowa State (SRS of 38.1 before the game) in Ames, Iowa by six points. How shocking was this? The SRS pegged the Cowboys last week as 26.2 point favorite while the actual point spread was 26.5. Oklahoma State played their worst game of the season, producing an SRS score of 33.7 (a -7 adjusted margin of victory against an opponent that — thanks in part to beating OSU — has an SRS score of 40.7). Oklahoma State is now at just 63.7 for the year.
Oklahoma fared a little better, as Baylor (current SRS of 49.4) is a better opponent. Losing by 7 in Waco (SRS grade for OU of 42.4) was still a better performance for the Sooners than the inexplicable 3-point home loss against Texas Tech (32.4), but the two bad performances are somewhat canceled out by the monster blowouts against Kansas State and Texas. Oklahoma dropped from 66.0 to 62.7 with the loss.
Oregon lost at home, but to a much better opponent. USC is now the 13th best team in the SRS, and not just because they took Stanford to triple overtime. The Trojans beat Notre Dame by 14 in South Bend and blew out California, Washington and Colorado. The Trojans were ugly against the good version of Arizona State, but that wasn’t even their worst performance of the season (in week 1, USC won by only two at home against Minnesota). But USC is one of the hottest teams in colege football, scoring an SRS grade of over 60 in four of their last six games. In fact, for SRS purposes, the Stanford loss was their worst game in that stretch.
Oregon put up a -7 adjusted MOV against USC, but USC’s 52.4 rating makes it a somewhat forgivable loss. The Ducks drop from 64.2 to 61.2.
Prior to the game, Oregon was at 64.2 and USC at 52.5, which suggests a point spread of 14.7 points for a game in Eugene. The actual spread was 15.5. Oklahoma was at 66.0 and Baylor at 47.8, which would put the point spread for a game in Waco at 15.2; the actual line was 17. The SRS standings below, along with the projected line for LSU/Arkansas:
Rk Team Conf G MOV SOS SRS Rec 1. LSU SEC 11 24.4 40.5 64.8 11-0 2. Alabama SEC 11 23.0 41.4 64.4 10-1 3. Oklahoma St B12 11 20.0 43.8 63.7 10-1 4. Oklahoma B12 10 17.8 44.9 62.7 8-2 5. Oregon P12 11 18.5 42.7 61.2 9-2 6. Stanford P12 11 20.0 39.5 59.5 10-1 7. Wisconsin B10 11 22.5 35.9 58.3 9-2 8. Boise St MWC 10 19.9 37.8 57.7 9-1 9. Michigan B10 11 16.0 40.6 56.6 9-2 10. Texas A&M B12 11 9.4 45.5 54.9 6-5 11. Arkansas SEC 11 15.3 38.1 53.4 10-1 12. Houston CUS 11 26.0 27.1 53.0 11-0 13. Southern Cal P12 11 8.8 43.6 52.4 9-2 14. Missouri B12 11 5.6 46.0 51.6 6-5 15. Texas B12 10 7.2 44.4 51.5 6-4 16. Notre Dame IND 11 9.7 41.1 50.8 8-3 17. Michigan St B10 11 12.3 38.5 50.8 9-2 18. Georgia SEC 11 13.0 37.7 50.7 9-2 19. TCU MWC 11 15.6 34.5 50.1 9-2 20. Kansas St B12 11 4.7 45.4 50.1 9-2 21. Baylor B12 10 3.9 45.6 49.4 7-3 22. Arizona St P12 11 8.3 40.8 49.0 6-5 23. South Carolina SEC 11 9.4 39.5 48.9 9-2 24. Nebraska B10 11 6.7 41.9 48.6 8-3 25. Florida St ACC 11 12.9 34.9 47.7 7-4 26. Virginia Tech ACC 11 11.0 36.6 47.6 10-1 27. Penn State B10 11 7.1 40.2 47.3 9-2 28. Miami FL ACC 11 6.2 39.7 45.9 6-5 29. Tulsa CUS 11 9.2 36.3 45.5 8-3 30. Utah P12 11 4.9 40.5 45.4 7-4 31. Clemson ACC 11 8.0 37.2 45.2 9-2 32. Florida SEC 11 4.5 40.1 44.6 6-5 33. Iowa B10 11 6.8 37.8 44.6 7-4 34. Toledo MAC 11 8.9 35.4 44.3 7-4 35. Ohio State B10 11 4.4 39.9 44.3 6-5 36. West Virginia BgE 10 8.0 36.2 44.1 7-3 37. Cincinnati BgE 10 10.8 33.3 44.1 7-3 38. California P12 11 3.7 40.1 43.7 6-5 39. South Florida BgE 10 7.2 36.3 43.5 5-5 40. Georgia Tech ACC 11 10.0 33.4 43.5 8-3 41. Southern Miss CUS 11 13.5 29.8 43.4 9-2 42. Illinois B10 11 2.0 41.3 43.3 6-5 43. Rutgers BgE 11 8.0 35.0 42.9 8-3 44. Tennessee SEC 11 -2.0 44.5 42.5 5-6 45. North Carolina ACC 11 3.4 39.1 42.5 6-5 46. Mississippi St SEC 11 2.0 40.3 42.3 5-6 47. Vanderbilt SEC 11 1.8 40.2 42.1 5-6 48. Temple MAC 11 12.5 29.4 41.9 7-4 49. Brigham Young IND 11 7.7 33.6 41.3 8-3 50. Iowa St B12 10 -4.8 45.5 40.7 6-4 51. Pittsburgh BgE 10 1.2 39.4 40.6 5-5 52. Louisiana Tech WAC 11 5.3 35.2 40.5 7-4 53. Northern Illinois MAC 11 8.0 32.4 40.4 8-3 54. Washington P12 11 -2.7 42.8 40.1 6-5 55. Arkansas St Sun 11 11.9 27.7 39.6 9-2 56. Auburn SEC 11 -1.5 41.1 39.6 7-4 57. Northwestern B10 11 3.8 35.8 39.6 6-5 58. San Diego St MWC 10 3.4 36.0 39.4 6-4 59. Texas Tech B12 11 -3.4 42.8 39.4 5-6 60. Virginia ACC 11 4.3 35.0 39.3 8-3 61. Nevada WAC 10 4.4 34.8 39.2 6-4 62. Arizona P12 11 -6.0 44.8 38.8 3-8 63. UCLA P12 11 -4.2 42.8 38.6 6-5 64. Wake Forest ACC 11 1.7 36.1 37.9 6-5 65. Louisville BgE 11 1.5 36.0 37.5 6-5 66. North Carolina St ACC 11 1.5 35.6 37.1 6-5 67. Ohio U. MAC 11 10.8 26.1 36.9 8-3 68. Utah St WAC 10 4.8 32.0 36.8 5-5 69. Air Force MWC 11 3.5 33.1 36.7 6-5 70. Western Michigan MAC 11 4.0 32.7 36.7 6-5 71. Washington St P12 11 -2.1 38.5 36.4 4-7 72. Navy IND 11 0.7 35.5 36.3 4-7 73. Purdue B10 11 -2.5 38.7 36.2 5-6 74. SMU CUS 11 0.6 35.5 36.1 6-5 75. Oregon St P12 11 -7.5 42.7 35.2 3-8 76. Syracuse BgE 10 -2.5 36.5 34.0 5-5 77. Central Florida CUS 11 5.0 28.9 33.9 4-7 78. Wyoming MWC 10 2.3 30.9 33.2 7-3 79. Connecticut BgE 10 -1.3 34.4 33.2 4-6 80. Florida Int'l Sun 11 5.8 27.3 33.1 7-4 81. Hawai`i WAC 11 3.0 30.0 33.0 5-6 82. Miami OH MAC 11 -1.5 33.6 32.0 4-7 83. Boston College ACC 11 -6.1 37.8 31.7 3-8 84. Louisiana-Lafayette Sun 11 3.6 27.4 31.1 8-3 85. Fresno St WAC 11 -5.2 36.1 30.9 4-7 86. Kentucky SEC 11 -8.5 39.4 30.9 4-7 87. San José St WAC 11 -5.3 36.2 30.8 4-7 88. Ball St MAC 11 -4.9 35.6 30.7 6-5 89. UTEP CUS 11 -3.0 33.1 30.2 5-6 90. Mississippi SEC 11 -13.6 43.7 30.0 2-9 91. East Carolina CUS 11 -4.9 34.7 29.8 5-6 92. Duke ACC 11 -8.0 37.7 29.6 3-8 93. Marshall CUS 11 -6.9 36.4 29.5 5-6 94. Minnesota B10 11 -14.3 43.8 29.5 2-9 95. Maryland ACC 11 -11.7 41.3 29.5 2-9 96. Western Kentucky Sun 11 -3.0 31.7 28.7 6-5 97. Bowling Green MAC 11 -4.2 32.9 28.7 4-7 98. Kansas B12 11 -18.1 46.6 28.4 2-9 99. Louisiana-Monroe Sun 11 -3.3 31.5 28.2 3-8 100. Army IND 11 -4.5 32.6 28.1 3-8 101. Colorado P12 12 -15.8 43.4 27.6 2-10 102. Kent St MAC 11 -5.5 32.6 27.2 5-6 103. Rice CUS 11 -9.7 36.8 27.1 4-7 104. Eastern Michigan MAC 11 -2.3 28.9 26.6 6-5 105. Buffalo MAC 11 -6.6 32.6 26.0 3-8 106. Indiana B10 11 -14.5 39.9 25.5 1-10 107. North Texas Sun 11 -10.0 35.0 25.0 4-7 108. Idaho WAC 11 -9.7 34.5 24.8 2-9 109. New Mexico St WAC 11 -8.4 32.7 24.4 4-7 110. Colorado St MWC 10 -7.2 30.7 23.6 3-7 111. Central Michigan MAC 12 -9.4 32.4 22.9 3-9 112. Troy Sun 10 -7.5 30.3 22.8 3-7 113. Middle Tennessee St Sun 10 -10.0 29.7 19.7 2-8 114. Alabama-Birmingham CUS 11 -14.9 33.8 18.9 3-8 115. UNLV MWC 10 -18.5 35.9 17.5 2-8 116. Tulane CUS 12 -14.7 29.3 14.6 2-10 117. New Mexico MWC 11 -22.8 35.7 12.9 1-10 118. Florida Atlantic Sun 10 -20.7 33.5 12.8 0-10 119. Memphis CUS 11 -14.5 26.6 12.1 2-9 120. Akron MAC 11 -19.2 30.2 11.0 1-10
Arkansas continues to rise, but the SRS remains skeptical about the wisdom of including the Hogs with the other powerhouses of the SEC. The projected spread is 11.5 on a neutral field or 14.5 in Baton Rouge; the actual point spread opened with LSU as a 13.5-point favorite. Remember that the SRS assigns equal weight to each game, but it’s worth noting that Arkansas’ best three games of the season all came in the last three weeks, beating South Carolina by 16, Tennessee by 42 and Mississippi State by 27. I’m a little surprised the point spread didn’t really reflect Arkansas’s hot performance of late, but history tells us we are far more likely to get burned putting more weight into a three-game stretch than giving such a streak too little significance.
Let’s also look at the SRS by conference:
Rk Team Conf G MOV SOS SRS Rec 25. Florida St ACC 11 12.9 34.9 47.7 7-4 26. Virginia Tech ACC 11 11.0 36.6 47.6 10-1 28. Miami FL ACC 11 6.2 39.7 45.9 6-5 31. Clemson ACC 11 8.0 37.2 45.2 9-2 40. Georgia Tech ACC 11 10.0 33.4 43.5 8-3 45. North Carolina ACC 11 3.4 39.1 42.5 6-5 60. Virginia ACC 11 4.3 35.0 39.3 8-3 64. Wake Forest ACC 11 1.7 36.1 37.9 6-5 66. North Carolina St ACC 11 1.5 35.6 37.1 6-5 83. Boston College ACC 11 -6.1 37.8 31.7 3-8 92. Duke ACC 11 -8.0 37.7 29.6 3-8 95. Maryland ACC 11 -11.7 41.3 29.5 2-9 7. Wisconsin B10 11 22.5 35.9 58.3 9-2 9. Michigan B10 11 16.0 40.6 56.6 9-2 17. Michigan St B10 11 12.3 38.5 50.8 9-2 24. Nebraska B10 11 6.7 41.9 48.6 8-3 27. Penn State B10 11 7.1 40.2 47.3 9-2 33. Iowa B10 11 6.8 37.8 44.6 7-4 35. Ohio State B10 11 4.4 39.9 44.3 6-5 42. Illinois B10 11 2.0 41.3 43.3 6-5 57. Northwestern B10 11 3.8 35.8 39.6 6-5 73. Purdue B10 11 -2.5 38.7 36.2 5-6 94. Minnesota B10 11 -14.3 43.8 29.5 2-9 106. Indiana B10 11 -14.5 39.9 25.5 1-10 3. Oklahoma St B12 11 20.0 43.8 63.7 10-1 4. Oklahoma B12 10 17.8 44.9 62.7 8-2 10. Texas A&M B12 11 9.4 45.5 54.9 6-5 14. Missouri B12 11 5.6 46.0 51.6 6-5 15. Texas B12 10 7.2 44.4 51.5 6-4 20. Kansas St B12 11 4.7 45.4 50.1 9-2 21. Baylor B12 10 3.9 45.6 49.4 7-3 50. Iowa St B12 10 -4.8 45.5 40.7 6-4 59. Texas Tech B12 11 -3.4 42.8 39.4 5-6 98. Kansas B12 11 -18.1 46.6 28.4 2-9 36. West Virginia BgE 10 8.0 36.2 44.1 7-3 37. Cincinnati BgE 10 10.8 33.3 44.1 7-3 39. South Florida BgE 10 7.2 36.3 43.5 5-5 43. Rutgers BgE 11 8.0 35.0 42.9 8-3 51. Pittsburgh BgE 10 1.2 39.4 40.6 5-5 65. Louisville BgE 11 1.5 36.0 37.5 6-5 76. Syracuse BgE 10 -2.5 36.5 34.0 5-5 79. Connecticut BgE 10 -1.3 34.4 33.2 4-6 12. Houston CUS 11 26.0 27.1 53.0 11-0 29. Tulsa CUS 11 9.2 36.3 45.5 8-3 41. Southern Miss CUS 11 13.5 29.8 43.4 9-2 74. SMU CUS 11 0.6 35.5 36.1 6-5 77. Central Florida CUS 11 5.0 28.9 33.9 4-7 89. UTEP CUS 11 -3.0 33.1 30.2 5-6 91. East Carolina CUS 11 -4.9 34.7 29.8 5-6 93. Marshall CUS 11 -6.9 36.4 29.5 5-6 103. Rice CUS 11 -9.7 36.8 27.1 4-7 114. Alabama-Birmingham CUS 11 -14.9 33.8 18.9 3-8 116. Tulane CUS 12 -14.7 29.3 14.6 2-10 119. Memphis CUS 11 -14.5 26.6 12.1 2-9 16. Notre Dame IND 11 9.7 41.1 50.8 8-3 49. Brigham Young IND 11 7.7 33.6 41.3 8-3 72. Navy IND 11 0.7 35.5 36.3 4-7 100. Army IND 11 -4.5 32.6 28.1 3-8 34. Toledo MAC 11 8.9 35.4 44.3 7-4 48. Temple MAC 11 12.5 29.4 41.9 7-4 53. Northern Illinois MAC 11 8.0 32.4 40.4 8-3 67. Ohio U. MAC 11 10.8 26.1 36.9 8-3 70. Western Michigan MAC 11 4.0 32.7 36.7 6-5 82. Miami OH MAC 11 -1.5 33.6 32.0 4-7 88. Ball St MAC 11 -4.9 35.6 30.7 6-5 97. Bowling Green MAC 11 -4.2 32.9 28.7 4-7 102. Kent St MAC 11 -5.5 32.6 27.2 5-6 104. Eastern Michigan MAC 11 -2.3 28.9 26.6 6-5 105. Buffalo MAC 11 -6.6 32.6 26.0 3-8 111. Central Michigan MAC 12 -9.4 32.4 22.9 3-9 120. Akron MAC 11 -19.2 30.2 11.0 1-10 8. Boise St MWC 10 19.9 37.8 57.7 9-1 19. TCU MWC 11 15.6 34.5 50.1 9-2 58. San Diego St MWC 10 3.4 36.0 39.4 6-4 69. Air Force MWC 11 3.5 33.1 36.7 6-5 78. Wyoming MWC 10 2.3 30.9 33.2 7-3 110. Colorado St MWC 10 -7.2 30.7 23.6 3-7 115. UNLV MWC 10 -18.5 35.9 17.5 2-8 117. New Mexico MWC 11 -22.8 35.7 12.9 1-10 5. Oregon P12 11 18.5 42.7 61.2 9-2 6. Stanford P12 11 20.0 39.5 59.5 10-1 13. Southern Cal P12 11 8.8 43.6 52.4 9-2 22. Arizona St P12 11 8.3 40.8 49.0 6-5 30. Utah P12 11 4.9 40.5 45.4 7-4 38. California P12 11 3.7 40.1 43.7 6-5 54. Washington P12 11 -2.7 42.8 40.1 6-5 62. Arizona P12 11 -6.0 44.8 38.8 3-8 63. UCLA P12 11 -4.2 42.8 38.6 6-5 71. Washington St P12 11 -2.1 38.5 36.4 4-7 75. Oregon St P12 11 -7.5 42.7 35.2 3-8 101. Colorado P12 12 -15.8 43.4 27.6 2-10 1. LSU SEC 11 24.4 40.5 64.8 11-0 2. Alabama SEC 11 23.0 41.4 64.4 10-1 11. Arkansas SEC 11 15.3 38.1 53.4 10-1 18. Georgia SEC 11 13.0 37.7 50.7 9-2 23. South Carolina SEC 11 9.4 39.5 48.9 9-2 32. Florida SEC 11 4.5 40.1 44.6 6-5 44. Tennessee SEC 11 -2.0 44.5 42.5 5-6 46. Mississippi St SEC 11 2.0 40.3 42.3 5-6 47. Vanderbilt SEC 11 1.8 40.2 42.1 5-6 56. Auburn SEC 11 -1.5 41.1 39.6 7-4 86. Kentucky SEC 11 -8.5 39.4 30.9 4-7 90. Mississippi SEC 11 -13.6 43.7 30.0 2-9 55. Arkansas St Sun 11 11.9 27.7 39.6 9-2 80. Florida Int'l Sun 11 5.8 27.3 33.1 7-4 84. Louisiana-Lafayette Sun 11 3.6 27.4 31.1 8-3 96. Western Kentucky Sun 11 -3.0 31.7 28.7 6-5 99. Louisiana-Monroe Sun 11 -3.3 31.5 28.2 3-8 107. North Texas Sun 11 -10.0 35.0 25.0 4-7 112. Troy Sun 10 -7.5 30.3 22.8 3-7 113. Middle Tennessee St Sun 10 -10.0 29.7 19.7 2-8 118. Florida Atlantic Sun 10 -20.7 33.5 12.8 0-10 52. Louisiana Tech WAC 11 5.3 35.2 40.5 7-4 61. Nevada WAC 10 4.4 34.8 39.2 6-4 68. Utah St WAC 10 4.8 32.0 36.8 5-5 81. Hawai`i WAC 11 3.0 30.0 33.0 5-6 85. Fresno St WAC 11 -5.2 36.1 30.9 4-7 87. San José St WAC 11 -5.3 36.2 30.8 4-7 108. Idaho WAC 11 -9.7 34.5 24.8 2-9 109. New Mexico St WAC 11 -8.4 32.7 24.4 4-7
I know no one cares about the Big East, but that is an ugly conference right now. In the Big East, five teams have two losses, Connecticut has three and USF and Syracuse have four. The tiebreaking possibilities are maddening to figure out. Cincinnati started 3-0 in conference play but lost the last two weeks. Still, with games left against Syracuse and Connecticut — the apparent dregs of the conference — Cincinnati is likely to get to 5-2. Rutgers is 4-2 with only UCONN left on the schedule. West Virginia could also get to 5-2 with wins over Pittsburgh and USF, as could Louisville if the Cardinals beat USF. CBS projects Louisville to win the conference, which is notable because the Cardinals lost by 4 at home against Marshall, by 7 at home against Florida International, by 7 at home against Pittsburgh, by 7 in North Carolina and by 11 in Cincinnati. And they beat FCS Murray State by only 12. Congratulations, Orange Bowl.
Last week
The biggest win of the weekend goes to Michigan. The Wolverines crushed Nebraska 45-17, worth 73.1 in the SRS. Iowa State (70.7), Baylor (69.7) and USC (68.2) come in second, third and fourth with their huge upset victories. LSU rounds out the top five, in a humiliating 52-3 victory in Oxford (68.0) where Les Miles began kneeling the ball with five minutes left.
Worst of the week? Akron is #120 in the SRS and just 1-10 this year. But even that doesn’t excuse a 51-10 thrashing in Buffalo. Among BCS schools, Colorado comes up with the worst game of the week (45-6 loss to UCLA) just a week after being college football’s biggest overachiever.
Can we avoid an all-SEC championship game?
Probably not. LSU and Alabama are the top two teams according to just about everyone, although the SRS thinks the gap is probably narrower than some would like us to believe. An LSU loss to Arkansas would make everything murky, but would seem to guarantee (barring a Georgia victory in the SEC Championship Game) an all-SEC BCS National Championship game. The only question there would be which two teams would make it?
LSU would have the best strength of schedule (beating Oregon and West Virginia) but the most recent loss. Arkansas has been the least dominant of the trio (Arkansas has won three games by five or fewer points and beat Troy by only 10 at home; LSU’s smallest non-Alabama win was by 13 against Oregon; Alabama’s smallest margin of victory was 16 in State College) but would have the longest winning streak and would have played both LSU and Alabama on the road. Alabama falls in the middle: they would have lost neither most recently or least recently; they have been more dominant than Arkansas but faced an easier schedule than LSU. The Crimson Tide would likely have the best points differential in the three round robin games, but also the weakest SOS overall (among non-common opponents between Alabama and Arkansas, Texas A&M and South Carolina would trump Penn State and Florida).
Personally, I’d go LSU #1, Arkansas #2 and Alabama #3 if we were to rank them in terms of which team had the best season (which would be the criteria I would use to rank teams for polls). For predictive purposes, it would likely be Alabama #1, LSU #2 and Arkansas #3 following a Razorback victory, with the gap between Arkansas and LSU being much wider than that between the Crimson Tide and the Tigers. Following an LSU loss, Alabama would probably be the clear best team in the country in terms of SRS, but that would be based muhc more on margin of victory than strength of schedule.
And if LSU beats Arkansas
The media seems to think we are locked in to an Alabama-LSU national championship game if both teams win out. Do any other teams deserve a chance?
Houston
Houston blew out SMU this weekend, 37-7, giving the Cougars 61.6 SRS points, their second biggest game of the season. Playing Tulsa and Southern Miss will improve the Houston’s strength of schedule, but even at 13-0 you can’t justify putting the Cougars in the championship game. They are closer to Hawaii 2007 than any of the great Boise State, TCU or Utah teams. Even this edition of Boise State would have had a hard time making it even if the Broncos were undefeated, and BSU has had a much more difficult schedule than Houston. Tulsa, Louisiana Tech or UCLA will end up being the best win for Houston. Simply put, Houston would not have beaten enough good teams or any great teams. And let’s not forget, Houston beat UCLA by only 4 points at home and only squeaked by Louisiana Tech and UTEP.
Virginia Tech
At 12-1 with an ACC Championship Game win over Georgia Tech, the Hokies would probably get some love. But Virginia Tech is 26th in the SRS for a reason: the Hokies aren’t very good. Virginia Tech scheduled meekly out of conference, which makes Miami or Clemson (in the title game) the best win by the Hokies this season. A miserable slate of OOC games and no Florida State makes Virginia Tech a non-starter, in my opinion.
Stanford
Unless Oregon loses to Oregon State, the Cardinal will not get a chance to play in the Pac-12 Championship Game. An 11-1 Stanford team would be impressive, but would have nowhere near the cache of an 11-1 Alabama team. Putting aside the losses for each team, Stanford would have beaten USC, Notre Dame and … Cal? Alabama would have Arkansas, Penn State, and Florida as a more impressive set of heads. And I doubt voters would overlook the fact that LSU easily handled Oregon and Oregon destroyed Stanford, while Alabama and LSU went into overtime. Stanford is four spots behind Alabama right now, and beating Notre Dame and even UCLA again won’t be enough to jump a one-loss Alabama.
Oklahoma State
The Cowboys are the only legitimate team the voters could get behind to prevent an LSU-Bama rematch. Realistically, this seems incredibly unlikely. But if the voters are truly anti-rematch, this is where their energies should go. It won’t get much notice, but the Cowboys are still the #2 team in the country in the computer ratings. Only a low showing in the polls (#6) leaves them at #4 in the BCS, behind the SEC West trio.
Oklahoma State losing to Iowa State is inexcusable, but beating Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Missouri, Texas, Kansas State, Baylor and Tulsa is impressive. The problem for the Cowboys? A&M, Missouri and Texas are top 15 teams according to the SRS but just a combined 18-14. Six of those losses were against Oklahoma or Oklahoma State; three more were to Kansas State, another OSU victim. Another two were by Missouri over Texas and Texas A&M. That leaves just Missouri’s loss to Baylor (another good team OSU crushed), A&M’s 3-point loss to Arkansas and Missouri’s overtime loss to Arizona State.
Would the voters spend that much time thinking about this? Probably not. But the Big 12 has five top-15 teams in the SRS and two more in the top 25. With a nine-game conference schedule, those teams have beaten up on each other, but that doesn’t make Oklahoma State’s (potential) 8-1 conference record less impressive.
The question would become: is losing to LSU at home in overtime and beating Arkansas, Penn State, Florida, Tennessee and Mississippi State more or less impressive than beating Oklahoma, Kansas State and Baylor at home, winning on the road against Texas A&M, Missouri and Texas and losing on the road against Iowa State? I think it’s closer than most SEC fans would like to admit. I think there’s almost no chance at all of the Cowboys actually jumping Alabama, even with a blowout win over Oklahoma. If you go by worst loss, the choice is clear. But if you go by best collection of wins, it’s equally clear. If the anti-rematch crowd wants to throw its support anywhere, the best move would be to ignore Houston, Virginia Tech and Stanford and rally around the Cowboys.
Again, this is speculation. The overwhelmingly likely scenario is an SEC title game between two teams from the SEC West. But if LSU obliterates Arkansas (making Alabama’s best win look worse) and Oklahoma State can blow out the Sooners, it’s at least reasonable to wonder who is more deserving between the Cowboys and Crimson Tide. Also, keep an eye on Conference USA this weekend. If Tulsa can upset Houston, that would bump up both Oklahoma State and Oklahoma (which would make an eventual OSU victory even more impressive). A Penn State loss to Wisconsin and Florida loss to Florida State will hurt Alabama, too. If all of those things happen, Oklahoma State would certainly have had as impressive a season as the Crimson Tide. But remember, the Cowboys are already #2 in the computers. For Pistol Pete to go to the BCS Championship Game, the voters will have to make it so.