Last week, the Simple Rating System did not have Arkansas in the top three; the SRS was unimpressed by the Razorbacks, which explains why they didn’t drop too much. Last week, the SRS had Arkansas at #13 with a score of 53.4; this week they’re 13th at 52.1. LSU is now alone at the top, with a 1.2 point edge over Alabama. That jives with the early reports that the Tigers will be a 1.5 to 2 point favorite over the Crimson Tide in the potential rematch. Oklahoma State actually drops by over a point because Tulsa dropped by 2.5 points after getting blown out by Houston, and Texas Tech, Texas A&M and Missouri all dropped by a couple of points after unimpressive conference games (and their opponents did not improve by as much). But the Cowboys are still third, and the SRS puts them within a couple of points of Alabama.
Houston had by far its best game of the season this weekend — a 72.5 score after beating Tulsa (43.0) by 32 on the road (adjusted MOV of 29.5). According to the SRS, Houston’s worst five games all came in September. Since then, Houston has an average SRS score of 60.2 in its last seven games with not a single sub-50 performance. I was (appropriately) skeptical of the Cougars based on an easy schedule for most of the season, but they’ve been playing at an elite level for the last two months. The full SRS results:
Rk. Team Conf G MOV SOS SRS W-L 1. LSU SEC 12 24.1 41.1 65.2 12-0 2. Alabama SEC 12 23.4 40.7 64.0 11-1 3. Oklahoma St B12 11 20.0 42.6 62.6 10-1 4. Oklahoma B12 11 17.7 43.3 61.1 9-2 5. Oregon P12 12 19.0 41.6 60.6 10-2 6. Stanford P12 12 19.3 39.9 59.1 11-1 7. Wisconsin B10 12 23.0 35.9 59.0 10-2 8. Boise St MWC 11 19.8 36.4 56.2 10-1 9. Michigan B10 12 15.3 40.1 55.4 10-2 10. Houston CUS 12 26.3 27.7 53.9 12-0 11. Southern Cal P12 12 11.0 42.4 53.5 10-2 12. Texas A&M B12 12 8.0 44.9 52.9 6-6 13. Arkansas SEC 12 12.3 39.8 52.1 10-2 14. Texas B12 11 7.1 44.0 51.1 7-4 15. Georgia SEC 12 13.4 37.6 51.0 10-2 16. Michigan St B10 12 12.7 38.1 50.8 10-2 17. Notre Dame IND 12 8.0 41.8 49.8 8-4 18. Missouri B12 12 6.3 43.3 49.7 7-5 19. South Carolina SEC 12 10.1 39.6 49.7 10-2 20. Baylor B12 11 5.7 43.9 49.6 8-3 21. TCU MWC 11 15.6 33.6 49.2 9-2 22. Kansas St B12 11 4.7 44.0 48.6 9-2 23. Nebraska B10 12 7.0 41.5 48.5 9-3 24. Virginia Tech ACC 12 12.8 35.4 48.2 11-1 25. Florida St ACC 12 13.2 34.2 47.4 8-4 26. Arizona St P12 12 6.6 39.9 46.5 6-6 27. Penn State B10 12 4.0 40.8 44.8 9-3 28. California P12 12 4.4 39.9 44.2 7-5 29. Toledo MAC 12 9.8 34.2 44.0 8-4 30. Vanderbilt SEC 12 4.2 39.6 43.8 6-6 31. Cincinnati BgE 11 11.6 32.0 43.7 8-3 32. Ohio State B10 12 3.5 40.2 43.7 6-6 33. Florida SEC 12 2.8 40.7 43.5 6-6 34. West Virginia BgE 11 7.2 36.0 43.3 8-3 35. Iowa B10 12 5.4 37.8 43.2 7-5 36. Mississippi St SEC 12 3.9 39.2 43.1 6-6 37. Clemson ACC 12 5.8 37.3 43.1 9-3 38. Tulsa CUS 12 6.0 37.0 43.0 8-4 39. Miami FL ACC 12 4.8 37.8 42.6 6-6 40. Utah P12 12 3.9 38.7 42.6 7-5 41. Southern Miss CUS 12 14.8 27.6 42.4 10-2 42. Georgia Tech ACC 12 7.8 33.6 41.4 8-4 43. Tennessee SEC 12 -1.9 43.1 41.3 5-7 44. Louisiana Tech WAC 12 7.5 33.7 41.2 8-4 45. North Carolina ACC 12 4.2 36.8 41.1 7-5 46. Temple MAC 12 12.7 28.1 40.8 8-4 47. South Florida BgE 11 5.4 35.2 40.6 5-6 48. Washington P12 12 -1.3 41.6 40.3 7-5 49. Brigham Young IND 11 7.7 32.6 40.3 8-3 50. Iowa St B12 11 -5.9 46.1 40.2 6-5 51. Rutgers BgE 12 6.0 34.0 40.1 8-4 52. Illinois B10 12 0.4 39.5 39.9 6-6 53. Pittsburgh BgE 11 1.1 38.7 39.8 5-6 54. Arkansas St Sun 11 11.9 27.3 39.2 9-2 55. Northern Illinois MAC 12 7.9 31.3 39.2 9-3 56. Auburn SEC 12 -3.7 42.7 39.0 7-5 57. Northwestern B10 12 2.1 36.2 38.3 6-6 58. Louisville BgE 12 2.4 35.8 38.2 7-5 59. San Diego St MWC 11 4.9 33.3 38.2 7-4 60. Arizona P12 12 -4.9 42.8 37.9 4-8 61. Nevada WAC 11 3.3 34.0 37.3 6-5 62. Texas Tech B12 12 -5.1 42.3 37.2 5-7 63. Utah St WAC 11 5.0 31.8 36.7 6-5 64. Air Force MWC 12 5.4 31.3 36.7 7-5 65. Western Michigan MAC 12 6.5 30.1 36.6 7-5 66. UCLA P12 12 -6.8 43.0 36.2 6-6 67. North Carolina St ACC 12 2.4 33.8 36.2 7-5 68. Virginia ACC 12 1.2 34.8 36.1 8-4 69. Ohio U. MAC 12 10.5 25.4 35.9 9-3 70. Navy IND 11 0.7 34.7 35.5 4-7 71. Purdue B10 12 -1.4 36.7 35.2 6-6 72. Wake Forest ACC 12 -1.0 35.9 35.0 6-6 73. Washington St P12 12 -3.1 37.7 34.6 4-8 74. SMU CUS 12 0.5 34.1 34.6 7-5 75. Connecticut BgE 11 0.2 34.3 34.6 5-6 76. Oregon St P12 12 -9.0 43.2 34.3 3-9 77. Central Florida CUS 12 5.7 28.1 33.9 5-7 78. Wyoming MWC 11 0.4 32.7 33.1 7-4 79. Florida Int'l Sun 12 6.6 26.1 32.8 8-4 80. Boston College ACC 12 -4.8 37.3 32.5 4-8 81. Syracuse BgE 11 -4.1 36.5 32.4 5-6 82. Kentucky SEC 12 -7.8 39.6 31.8 5-7 83. Hawai`i WAC 12 3.5 28.1 31.6 6-6 84. Minnesota B10 12 -11.7 42.9 31.2 3-9 85. Miami OH MAC 12 -2.0 33.2 31.2 4-8 86. Louisiana-Lafayette Sun 12 2.8 27.8 30.5 8-4 87. San José St WAC 12 -4.3 34.6 30.3 5-7 88. Marshall CUS 12 -5.7 35.3 29.6 6-6 89. Fresno St WAC 12 -5.3 34.9 29.6 4-8 90. Western Kentucky Sun 12 -1.1 30.5 29.4 7-5 91. Bowling Green MAC 12 -2.4 31.5 29.1 5-7 92. Ball St MAC 12 -6.1 35.1 29.0 6-6 93. Mississippi SEC 12 -14.5 43.5 28.9 2-10 94. East Carolina CUS 12 -5.1 33.9 28.8 5-7 95. Duke ACC 12 -8.5 37.0 28.5 3-9 96. Colorado P12 13 -14.0 42.5 28.5 3-10 97. UTEP CUS 12 -3.9 32.1 28.2 5-7 98. Kansas B12 12 -17.8 45.8 28.0 2-10 99. Maryland ACC 12 -11.8 39.5 27.7 2-10 100. Louisiana-Monroe Sun 11 -3.3 30.9 27.6 3-8 101. Army IND 11 -4.5 31.8 27.3 3-8 102. Rice CUS 12 -8.9 36.0 27.1 4-8 103. Kent St MAC 12 -6.3 32.6 26.3 5-7 104. Eastern Michigan MAC 12 -2.7 28.5 25.9 6-6 105. North Texas Sun 11 -10.0 34.4 24.4 4-7 106. Indiana B10 12 -14.2 38.3 24.1 1-11 107. Buffalo MAC 12 -7.5 31.5 24.1 3-9 108. Idaho WAC 11 -9.7 33.4 23.7 2-9 109. New Mexico St WAC 12 -10.4 32.7 22.3 4-8 110. Central Michigan MAC 12 -9.4 31.7 22.2 3-9 111. Colorado St MWC 11 -8.8 30.5 21.7 3-8 112. Troy Sun 11 -8.6 29.5 20.9 3-8 113. Middle Tennessee St Sun 11 -10.5 29.3 18.8 2-9 114. Alabama-Birmingham CUS 12 -13.7 31.5 17.8 3-9 115. UNLV MWC 11 -18.6 35.2 16.6 2-9 116. Tulane CUS 13 -14.2 28.6 14.4 2-11 117. Florida Atlantic Sun 11 -18.8 31.6 12.7 1-10 118. New Mexico MWC 11 -22.8 34.5 11.8 1-10 119. Memphis CUS 12 -15.8 27.5 11.7 2-10 120. Akron MAC 12 -20.5 30.0 9.5 1-11
And by conference:
Rk. Team Conf G MOV SOS SRS W-L 24. Virginia Tech ACC 12 12.8 35.4 48.2 11-1 25. Florida St ACC 12 13.2 34.2 47.4 8-4 37. Clemson ACC 12 5.8 37.3 43.1 9-3 39. Miami FL ACC 12 4.8 37.8 42.6 6-6 42. Georgia Tech ACC 12 7.8 33.6 41.4 8-4 45. North Carolina ACC 12 4.2 36.8 41.1 7-5 67. North Carolina St ACC 12 2.4 33.8 36.2 7-5 68. Virginia ACC 12 1.2 34.8 36.1 8-4 72. Wake Forest ACC 12 -1.0 35.9 35.0 6-6 80. Boston College ACC 12 -4.8 37.3 32.5 4-8 95. Duke ACC 12 -8.5 37.0 28.5 3-9 99. Maryland ACC 12 -11.8 39.5 27.7 2-10 7. Wisconsin B10 12 23.0 35.9 59.0 10-2 9. Michigan B10 12 15.3 40.1 55.4 10-2 16. Michigan St B10 12 12.7 38.1 50.8 10-2 23. Nebraska B10 12 7.0 41.5 48.5 9-3 27. Penn State B10 12 4.0 40.8 44.8 9-3 32. Ohio State B10 12 3.5 40.2 43.7 6-6 35. Iowa B10 12 5.4 37.8 43.2 7-5 52. Illinois B10 12 0.4 39.5 39.9 6-6 57. Northwestern B10 12 2.1 36.2 38.3 6-6 71. Purdue B10 12 -1.4 36.7 35.2 6-6 84. Minnesota B10 12 -11.7 42.9 31.2 3-9 106. Indiana B10 12 -14.2 38.3 24.1 1-11 3. Oklahoma St B12 11 20.0 42.6 62.6 10-1 4. Oklahoma B12 11 17.7 43.3 61.1 9-2 12. Texas A&M B12 12 8.0 44.9 52.9 6-6 14. Texas B12 11 7.1 44.0 51.1 7-4 18. Missouri B12 12 6.3 43.3 49.7 7-5 20. Baylor B12 11 5.7 43.9 49.6 8-3 22. Kansas St B12 11 4.7 44.0 48.6 9-2 50. Iowa St B12 11 -5.9 46.1 40.2 6-5 62. Texas Tech B12 12 -5.1 42.3 37.2 5-7 98. Kansas B12 12 -17.8 45.8 28.0 2-10 31. Cincinnati BgE 11 11.6 32.0 43.7 8-3 34. West Virginia BgE 11 7.2 36.0 43.3 8-3 47. South Florida BgE 11 5.4 35.2 40.6 5-6 51. Rutgers BgE 12 6.0 34.0 40.1 8-4 53. Pittsburgh BgE 11 1.1 38.7 39.8 5-6 58. Louisville BgE 12 2.4 35.8 38.2 7-5 75. Connecticut BgE 11 0.2 34.3 34.6 5-6 81. Syracuse BgE 11 -4.1 36.5 32.4 5-6 10. Houston CUS 12 26.3 27.7 53.9 12-0 38. Tulsa CUS 12 6.0 37.0 43.0 8-4 41. Southern Miss CUS 12 14.8 27.6 42.4 10-2 74. SMU CUS 12 0.5 34.1 34.6 7-5 77. Central Florida CUS 12 5.7 28.1 33.9 5-7 88. Marshall CUS 12 -5.7 35.3 29.6 6-6 94. East Carolina CUS 12 -5.1 33.9 28.8 5-7 97. UTEP CUS 12 -3.9 32.1 28.2 5-7 102. Rice CUS 12 -8.9 36.0 27.1 4-8 114. Alabama-Birmingham CUS 12 -13.7 31.5 17.8 3-9 116. Tulane CUS 13 -14.2 28.6 14.4 2-11 119. Memphis CUS 12 -15.8 27.5 11.7 2-10 17. Notre Dame IND 12 8.0 41.8 49.8 8-4 49. Brigham Young IND 11 7.7 32.6 40.3 8-3 70. Navy IND 11 0.7 34.7 35.5 4-7 101. Army IND 11 -4.5 31.8 27.3 3-8 29. Toledo MAC 12 9.8 34.2 44.0 8-4 46. Temple MAC 12 12.7 28.1 40.8 8-4 55. Northern Illinois MAC 12 7.9 31.3 39.2 9-3 65. Western Michigan MAC 12 6.5 30.1 36.6 7-5 69. Ohio U. MAC 12 10.5 25.4 35.9 9-3 85. Miami OH MAC 12 -2.0 33.2 31.2 4-8 91. Bowling Green MAC 12 -2.4 31.5 29.1 5-7 92. Ball St MAC 12 -6.1 35.1 29.0 6-6 103. Kent St MAC 12 -6.3 32.6 26.3 5-7 104. Eastern Michigan MAC 12 -2.7 28.5 25.9 6-6 107. Buffalo MAC 12 -7.5 31.5 24.1 3-9 110. Central Michigan MAC 12 -9.4 31.7 22.2 3-9 120. Akron MAC 12 -20.5 30.0 9.5 1-11 8. Boise St MWC 11 19.8 36.4 56.2 10-1 21. TCU MWC 11 15.6 33.6 49.2 9-2 59. San Diego St MWC 11 4.9 33.3 38.2 7-4 64. Air Force MWC 12 5.4 31.3 36.7 7-5 78. Wyoming MWC 11 0.4 32.7 33.1 7-4 111. Colorado St MWC 11 -8.8 30.5 21.7 3-8 115. UNLV MWC 11 -18.6 35.2 16.6 2-9 118. New Mexico MWC 11 -22.8 34.5 11.8 1-10 5. Oregon P12 12 19.0 41.6 60.6 10-2 6. Stanford P12 12 19.3 39.9 59.1 11-1 11. Southern Cal P12 12 11.0 42.4 53.5 10-2 26. Arizona St P12 12 6.6 39.9 46.5 6-6 28. California P12 12 4.4 39.9 44.2 7-5 40. Utah P12 12 3.9 38.7 42.6 7-5 48. Washington P12 12 -1.3 41.6 40.3 7-5 60. Arizona P12 12 -4.9 42.8 37.9 4-8 66. UCLA P12 12 -6.8 43.0 36.2 6-6 73. Washington St P12 12 -3.1 37.7 34.6 4-8 76. Oregon St P12 12 -9.0 43.2 34.3 3-9 96. Colorado P12 13 -14.0 42.5 28.5 3-10 1. LSU SEC 12 24.1 41.1 65.2 12-0 2. Alabama SEC 12 23.4 40.7 64.0 11-1 13. Arkansas SEC 12 12.3 39.8 52.1 10-2 15. Georgia SEC 12 13.4 37.6 51.0 10-2 19. South Carolina SEC 12 10.1 39.6 49.7 10-2 30. Vanderbilt SEC 12 4.2 39.6 43.8 6-6 33. Florida SEC 12 2.8 40.7 43.5 6-6 36. Mississippi St SEC 12 3.9 39.2 43.1 6-6 43. Tennessee SEC 12 -1.9 43.1 41.3 5-7 56. Auburn SEC 12 -3.7 42.7 39.0 7-5 82. Kentucky SEC 12 -7.8 39.6 31.8 5-7 93. Mississippi SEC 12 -14.5 43.5 28.9 2-10 54. Arkansas St Sun 11 11.9 27.3 39.2 9-2 79. Florida Int'l Sun 12 6.6 26.1 32.8 8-4 86. Louisiana-Lafayette Sun 12 2.8 27.8 30.5 8-4 90. Western Kentucky Sun 12 -1.1 30.5 29.4 7-5 100. Louisiana-Monroe Sun 11 -3.3 30.9 27.6 3-8 105. North Texas Sun 11 -10.0 34.4 24.4 4-7 112. Troy Sun 11 -8.6 29.5 20.9 3-8 113. Middle Tennessee St Sun 11 -10.5 29.3 18.8 2-9 117. Florida Atlantic Sun 11 -18.8 31.6 12.7 1-10 44. Louisiana Tech WAC 12 7.5 33.7 41.2 8-4 61. Nevada WAC 11 3.3 34.0 37.3 6-5 63. Utah St WAC 11 5.0 31.8 36.7 6-5 83. Hawai`i WAC 12 3.5 28.1 31.6 6-6 87. San José St WAC 12 -4.3 34.6 30.3 5-7 89. Fresno St WAC 12 -5.3 34.9 29.6 4-8 108. Idaho WAC 11 -9.7 33.4 23.7 2-9 109. New Mexico St WAC 12 -10.4 32.7 22.3 4-8
Oklahoma State vs. Alabama
Note: All of the analysis which follows assumes an Oklahoma State victory over Oklahoma. Putting aside the question of *will* a rematch happen (the rematch), *should* we have a rematch with Alabama taking the spot opposite LSU in the BCS National Championship Game?
Alabama’s best set of wins took a hit this weekend. Earlier this year, we thought the Crimson Tide had beaten only three respectable opponents: Arkansas, Penn State and Florida. This weekend, Arkansas lost 41-17, Penn State lost 45-7 and Florida lost 21-7. We know that Alabama is Alabama, an established brand that entered the season as one of the top two teams in every major poll. And based on margin of victory and SRS, Alabama has lived up to the hype, playing as an elite team basically every week of the season. Alabama is as good if not better than every team in the country, and that includes LSU.
But the SRS should never be used to actually place teams. We should reward teams for what they’ve done, not how good they are. It should be about resumes and accomplishments, not talent. A one-point win is much different than a one-point loss, even if the SRS disagrees. And Alabama will have beaten one top-ten type team in Arkansas, a fringe-top 25 team in Penn State and a bunch of mediocre SEC teams. In fact, according to Jeff Sagarin, Alabama has gone 1-1 against top-24 teams this season, as Sagarin mercilessly has the Nittany Lions at 25. Let’s take a look at first and second order wins (i.e. teams that were beaten by teams that were beaten by Alabama), along with those teams’ Sagarin ranks:
7 - Arkansas (12 - Texas A&M) (Arkansas) (15 - South Carolina) (Auburn) (15 - South Carolina) (Arkansas) 25 - Penn State 31 - Mississippi St (31 - Mississippi St) (Auburn) (31 - Mississippi St) (Arkansas) 33 - Florida (33 - Florida) (Auburn) 34 - Auburn (34 - Auburn) (Arkansas) (36 - Cincinnati) (Tennessee) 39 - Vanderbilt (39 - Vanderbilt) (Arkansas) (39 - Vanderbilt) (Florida) (39 - Vanderbilt) (Tennessee) (41 - Ohio State) (Penn State) (42 - Iowa) (Penn State) (46 - Louisiana Tech) (Mississippi St)
One win over a top ten team, three more second order wins over top 20 teams, five combined wins over top 30 teams and then another 12 combined first and second order wins from teams in the 30s. What about Oklahoma State, before the Oklahoma game?
(4 - Oklahoma) (Baylor) (4 - Oklahoma) (Texas Tech) 11 - Kansas St 12 - Texas A&M (12 - Texas A&M) (Kansas St) (12 - Texas A&M) (Texas) (12 - Texas A&M) (Missouri) 14 - Texas (14 - Texas) (Kansas St) (14 - Texas) (Missouri) 16 - Baylor (16 - Baylor) (Kansas St) (16 - Baylor) (Texas A&M) 18 - Missouri (18 - Missouri) (Kansas St) (18 - Missouri) (Baylor) (21 - TCU) (Baylor) 27 - Tulsa (29 - Iowa St) (Texas A&M) (29 - Iowa St) (Texas) (29 - Iowa St) (Baylor) (29 - Iowa St) (Missouri) (35 - Arizona St) (Arizona) 44 - Texas Tech (44 - Texas Tech) (Kansas St) (44 - Texas Tech) (Texas A&M) (44 - Texas Tech) (Texas) (44 - Texas Tech) (Baylor) (44 - Texas Tech) (Missouri) (45 - Brigham Young) (Texas) (47 - Miami FL) (Kansas St)
Beating Oklahoma will obviously be the most impressive victory by OSU this season, although it’s unlikely that the Sooners will stay at 4 if the Cowboys beat them in Bedlam. And defeating Oklahoma will give them an extra second order win against A&M, Texas, Mizzou, Baylor, Kanas State, Florida State and Tulsa.
But it’s obvious when looking at the first and second order wins that the computers love the Big XII. To me, these conferences are roughly equal in strength and production. The SEC appears to be more top heavy, but it’s hard to tell if that’s just a consequence of the bottom being weaker. The B12 has fared just as well if not better than the SEC out of conference, and the only matchup between the two was a top SEC team squeaking by a decidedly not top B12 team (but SRS favorite). There is no doubt that LSU has been the best team in the country. But the rest of the SEC? The other 11 schools have just one win over a team with an SRS score of over 45: Arkansas over A&M.
If OSU beats OU and wins the Big 12, I think they have just as much right to the championship game as Alabama. As a fan of college football, I’d prefer to see the two champs of the two best conferences play each other. My general view is the more compelling non-conference games, the better. None of us really knows how the B12 compares to the SEC. There are so few legitimate non-conference games that it’s impossible to say with certainty which conference is better. This year has many similarities to 2006, when:
Ohio State went undefeated and was the clear #1. In the Game of the Century, OSU beat undefeated #2 Michigan. Michigan had a pretty easy SOS, and their best win came against a Wisconsin team that went undefeated in all non-Michigan games that season. They had one other good win (against Notre Dame), but otherwise, Michigan’s schedule wasn’t very good.
Meanwhile, Florida had impressively won the SEC, but had a loss to an inferior opponent. A lot of people wanted a rematch of the Game of the Century, and thought Michigan was better than Florida on the basis of best loss. But looking at best set of wins, it was clear Florida was more deserving than Michigan. The Gators were a big underdog in the national championship game, but ended up blowing out Ohio State and beginning the current reign of SEC dominance.
But we never would have known any of this if the voters had a team from the same conference line up against the #1 team in the country. Alabama may well be the best team in the country, and the Crimson Tide are probably one of the best two. But with the incredibly limited sample size that exists in college football, I selfishly hate to see them waste the opportunity of giving us a compelling matchup between a great offense from one of the best two conferences against a great defense from the other top conference. The SEC has played one game against the Pac-12, one game against the Big 10 and one game against the Big 12. In five games against the ACC, the SEC went 3-2. One of those wins came by Georgia this past weekend, although that win is somewhat mitigated by UGA’s loss earlier this season to a Mountain West team.
Maybe the SEC is the dominant conference this season. It’s been the dominant conference in prior years. But until we have more evidence that the 2011 SEC is so dominant that it’s top two teams are clearly the top two teams in the country, I’ll pull for Oklahoma State to blow out the Sooners. And hope that some voters see things my way.
Sun Devils collapse
On the first day of November, I unveiled the first edition of this year’s simple rating system scores. At the time, Arizona State was the 11th best team in the SRS and had a 6-2 record, highlighted by a 43-22 whipping over USC. The Sun Devils had just one conference loss, a respectable 41-27 showing against Oregon that was one of the best performances by a Pac-12 opponent against the Ducks in the past two-and-a-half years. The remainder of the conference schedule featured four games against teams ranked in the bottom half of the conference according to the SRS.
First, ASU shockingly lost to UCLA. Then the Sun Devils lost to Washington State 37-27, allowing the Cougars to score over 34 points for the first time in a conference game since 2007. The Sun Devils would still have been able to make the Pac-12 title game if they could handle business against the dregs of the conference in Arizona and Colorado. Arizona had won just one game against FBS competition this season, a 48-12 thrashing of UCLA in their first game after firing coach Mike Stoops. The Wildcats then lost by double digits to Washington, Utah and Colorado, but pulled off the huge upset in the duel in the desert, beating ASU 31-27. Finally, the Sun Devils completed the collapse against the Golden Bears. Arizona State lost 47-38, the second most points scored by Cal in any road game in the past six seasons. Four weeks ago, it was impossible to imagine that Arizona State would be paired with the 2008 Washington Huskies who ranked 119th out of 120 FBS teams in both points scored and points allowed. But it’s been an awful month in the desert. Not surprisingly, coach Dennis Erickson will be relieved of his duties.
Maryland is not very good
Maryland wore crazy uniforms and pulled an upset victory on opening weekend against Miami. That will be the only win over FBS competition for the Terps this season. But this past weekend marked a new way to disappoint the fan base.
With seven minutes left in the third quarter, Maryland was shocking N.C. State, 41-17. With seven minutes left in the fourth quarter, N.C. State was leading 42-41. The game ended 56-41. The last 25 minutes of the game went as follows:
Maryland: 3 plays, 9 yards, punt
N.C. State: 9 plays, 69 yards, touchdown
Maryland: 3 plays, -2 yards, punt
N.C. State: 12 plays, 64 yards, touchdown
Maryland: 1 play, 5 yards, fumble
N.C. State: 4 plays, 26 yards, touchdown
Maryland: 6 plays, 44 yards, interception
N.C. State: 10 plays, 52 yards, touchdown
Maryland: 3 plays, -4 yards, punt
N.C. State: 8 plays, 57 yards, touchdown
Maryland: 5 plays, 26 yards, interception returned for touchdown
Maryland: 2 plays, -7 yards, end of game
Maryland’s last seven drives consisted of 23 plays, 71 yards and three turnovers. Including the pick-six scored by the defense, N.C. State scored six touchdowns over the course of its last five drives.
FCS playoffs
Sam Houston State is the #1 seed thanks to a sparkling 11-0 record, but the SRS places them as “just” the 4th best team. North Dakota State, Northern Iowa and Georgia Southern are a combined 28-5. Three of those losses were excusable: Georgia Southern lost 45-21 to Alabama, Northern Iowa lost 20-19 to Iowa State (transitive property says that UNI is better than Oklahoma State!!!) and UNI lost 27-19 to North Dakota State. North Dakota State also lost to Youngstown State and Georgia Southern lost to Appalachian State, two of the better FCS schools. Sam Houston crushed its two toughest opponents — Stephen F. Austin and Central Arkansas — but faced a weak schedule relative to the other top contenders. Here are the full SRS ratings for all of the schools remaining in the FCS playoffs:
Team Conf G MOV SOS SRS W-L North Dakota St fcs 11 16.5 21.0 37.5 10-1 Northern Iowa fcs 11 11.3 25.9 37.2 9-2 Georgia Southern fcs 11 13.7 22.0 35.6 9-2 Sam Houston St fcs 11 23.0 12.6 35.5 11-0 Montana fcs 11 11.0 18.9 29.9 9-2 Montana St fcs 11 11.1 17.2 28.3 9-2 Wofford fcs 11 8.6 19.5 28.1 8-3 Lehigh fcs 11 16.0 12.0 28.1 10-1 Appalachian St fcs 11 6.8 19.9 26.8 8-3 Maine fcs 11 6.4 19.4 25.7 8-3 Towson fcs 11 9.0 16.5 25.5 9-2 New Hampshire fcs 11 2.5 21.3 23.8 8-3 Old Dominion fcs 12 9.6 14.5 24.1 10-2 James Madison fcs 12 4.9 19.1 24.0 8-4 Stony Brook fcs 12 12.6 9.6 22.1 9-3 Central Arkansas fcs 12 6.3 18.0 24.3 9-3
And for those curious, here is the FCS playoff schedule. And for those who feel the need to have point spreads associated with the games, here is the second round schedule with SRS point spreads:
Stony Brook at (1) Sam Houston State (-16.4)
New Hampshire at Montana State (-7.5)
Wofford at (5) Northern Iowa (-12.1)
Central Arkansas at (4) Montana (-8.6)
Old Dominion at (3) Georgia Southern (-14.5)
Maine at Appalachian State (-4.1)
Lehigh at Towson (-0.4)
James Madison at (2) North Dakota State (-16.5)